Republicans are on track to take control of the Senate from Democrats, according to a new New York Times/Siena College poll.
Democrats currently have a narrow advantage over the GOP in the upper chamber with a 51-49 majority. However, with Sen. Joe Manchin’s (I-WV) retirement, Republicans are poised to pick up his seat in the ruby-red state.
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Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) is perhaps the most endangered Democratic senator. The poll showed him trailing Republican Tim Sheehy by seven points, 52% to 44%, which would give the GOP the extra boost to retake control, provided they don’t lose any incumbent races.
The poll is in line with several other polls that show Tester in trouble. A RealClearPolitics average of recent polls showed Sheehy ahead by seven points.
Democrats are also in danger of losing dead-heat Senate races in Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) grip on power is also resting on Democrats holding very competitive races in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona.
Democrats are on defense in many battleground states and have only two options to go on offense: Texas and Florida. However, polling is suggesting they face a steep climb to offset a Tester loss in the South.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) leads Democrat Colin Allred by four points, 48% to 44%, while Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) leads former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by nine points, 49% to 40%.
Cruz faced a tough reelection campaign against Democrat Beto O’Rourke in 2018 but triumphed by a 2.6-point margin of victory. However, this time around, Cruz is trying to soften his public image as a Republican warrior who gets thrills out of antagonizing Democrats.
Scott, meanwhile, is pouring nearly $10 million in TV ads as he seeks to trounce Mucarsel-Powell, who has been outspent in the race. However, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said it will spend millions of dollars in her defense.
In Nebraska, independent candidate Dan Osborn‘s early poll numbers showed he is competitive in his battle to unseat Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE), but he has said he would not caucus with either party.
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Democrats are also facing negative headlines after the Cook Political Report shifted the Wisconsin Senate race from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up,” as Republican Eric Hovde hopes to unseat Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI). A loss in Wisconsin would almost likely doom the party’s chances of keeping control of the Senate.
Senate races in Ohio and Michigan, currently held by Democrats, have also been rated as a “toss-up” by the Cook Political report.