Former President Donald Trump has a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in various swing states, as the campaigns’ focus on different demographics is showing in the final weeks of the race.
A series of polls from the Hill/Emerson College show a tight race in the pivotal states that will decide the election. Trump holds slim leads over Harris in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Harris holds a slight edge in Nevada and Michigan.
The results showed a slight improvement overall for Trump since the pollster’s last survey in September, while other recently conducted polls showed the former president gaining ground in the battleground states as Election Day nears.
Trump’s attempts to cut into the union vote and solidify the male vote, along with Harris’s efforts to shore up the female vote, appear to favor the former president’s efforts.
Trump has an advantage with male voters in all of the states surveyed, ranging from a 49%-47% advantage in Arizona to a 56%-42% advantage in Georgia and Pennsylvania. Harris has an advantage with female voters in six of the seven states. Trump is leading Harris with women in Arizona, 50%-47 %, while Harris is leading Trump with women in the other states, ranging from a 52%-45% advantage in North Carolina to a 54%-45% lead in Pennsylvania.
Harris has focused significantly on courting women voters by making abortion one of the top matters of her campaign and appearing on shows, including the Call Her Daddy podcast, which was the most popular podcast among female listeners on Spotify in 2023.
Trump’s campaign has focused on appealing to male audiences and union workers, a typical Democratic stronghold. The survey showed that union voters still largely back Harris, the Democrat, but in Pennsylvania, he has flipped the group.
“Voters in union households break for Harris by 10 points in Michigan (54% to 44%) and by 26 points in Wisconsin (62% to 36%),” Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said in a statement. “In Pennsylvania, they favor Trump 53% to 43%. Non-union households lean toward Trump in Michigan (50% to 48%) and Wisconsin (52% to 46%), but Harris leads slightly in Pennsylvania, 49% to 48%.
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All of the states surveyed by the pollster have been rated as “toss-up” contests by the Cook Political Report in the presidential race.
In the RealClearPolitics polling average, Trump is leading Harris in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, while Harris is leading Trump in Nevada and Wisconsin.