A protracted dockworker strike could inflict political damage on Vice President Kamala Harris as the November elections quickly approach.
On Tuesday, tens of thousands of members of the International Longshoremen’s Association at ports from Maine to Texas began striking after their six-year contract expired. Workers at the 36 East and Gulf coast ports involved are demanding large pay raises and a ban on automation.
This is the first strike at East and Gulf coast ports since 1977, and given the scale of the work stoppage, it presents an economic headache for President Joe Biden and Harris, the Democratic candidate for president. The longer the strike continues, the more damage it will do to the economy and the more it could hurt Harris.
“Biden and his proxies are stuck between a rock and a hard place,” Dan Bowling, a visiting professor at Georgia State University’s law school who teaches about labor union matters, told the Washington Examiner.
Notably, Biden has the power to act and force an end to the strike under the Taft-Hartley Act, but he could damage his administration’s pro-union bona fides and jeopardize union support for Harris. The Taft-Hartley Act amended the National Labor Relations Act to give the executive authority to intervene in instances that represent national emergencies.
If Biden did intervene, it would impose an 80-day cooling-off period under Taft-Hartley, during which a strike would be averted because the longshoremen would return to work while negotiations continued.
But Biden is not ready to take that step. The president has said he doesn’t believe in Taft-Hartley, although his administration is working behind the scenes to help the two sides reach an agreement.
On Monday, chief of staff Jeff Zients and National Economic adviser Lael Brainard met with U.S. Maritime Alliance board members and “urged them to resolve this in a way that accounts for the success of these companies in recent years and the invaluable contributions of ILA workers.”
If a strike drags out for a long period of time, the negative economic effects will be compounded and could be felt by voters — something Biden and Harris are trying to avoid. Sean Higgins, a research fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, told the Washington Examiner that when West Coast ports were jammed during the pandemic, there was a “cascade effect” that created a supply chain crisis across the entire country.
“So it’s potentially a very significant shutdown that could really tie up the economy,” he said.
Transportation analysts at J.P. Morgan estimate that a strike by longshoremen would cost the economy $5 billion per day, which is 6% of gross domestic product.
The strike comes at an unfortunate time for Harris and Democrats due to its proximity to the election and the need to retain the support of union voters in battleground states such as Pennsylvania.
“I think Harris has to be forced into answering some questions as to what she would do, her opinion on this,” Bowling said. “Would she intervene? What will it do to the economy? And so there’s no good outcome right now for the Democrats, in my opinion.”
Harris is courting the union vote, but Trump is also trying to eat into that support. If Biden does end up invoking Taft-Hartley and stopping the strike, it could anger union voters.
In 2022, Biden prevented a rail workers strike by convening a Presidential Emergency Board under the Railway Labor Act of 1926, and Congress used its authority to impose an agreement on the two sides. At the time, Biden was criticized by some pro-union figures for the move.
Peter Loge, director of the George Washington University School of Media and Public Affairs, said facilitating a quick settlement to the contract disputes would be a feather in Biden’s hat. A drawn-out strike, in contrast, would harm the economy just as it recovers from years of high inflation inflation.
“But more importantly, you offer an opportunity for Trump to say, if I were president, this would never happen, I would stop the strike,” Loge told the Washington Examiner. “So a prolonged strike is bad for the Biden and Harris administration. A prolonged strike is very bad for the Harris-Walz ticket.”
Republicans are already calling upon Biden to step in. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) warned that not intervening could damage commerce.
“This administration’s failure to encourage a resolution between the International Longshoremen’s Association union and the U.S. Maritime Alliance will only exacerbate the economic pain wrought by four years of skyrocketing inflation, decreasing wages, and fewer jobs,” Johnson said, according to C-SPAN.
Trump released a statement on Tuesday that bashed Harris for the strike.
“The situation should have never come to this and, had I been President, it would not have,” Trump said. “This is only happening because of the inflation brought on by Kamala Harris’ two votes for massive, out-of-control spending, and her decision to cut off energy exploration.”
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“They should ensure that both sides remain at the table, continue to negotiate in good faith, and ultimately reach a deal that keeps workers on the job and goods flowing through our ports, including those in Louisiana,” he said.
Likewise, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), who is the ranking member on the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions, previously asked Biden to intervene in a letter to the president ahead of the strike.