Former President Donald Trump‘s increased focus on immigration as a dominant theme of his 2024 campaign could help replicate his 2016 victory.
But in a twist from his first presidential run, Trump is now making the explicit case that illegal immigrants will hurt African American and Hispanic workers disproportionately in a move meant to persuade minority voters to abandon Democrats during the election.
On Friday, his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, will make a long-awaited trip to the border, and Trump has repeatedly hammered the topic of immigration in the run-up, culminating in a free-wheeling press conference at Trump Tower in New York City on Thursday afternoon.
At a Savannah, Georgia, rally earlier this week where Trump announced his manufacturing proposals, the former president spent some time discussing immigrants entering the United States illegally at the southern border.
“Drugs are now coming through our border at about 10 times. We talk about the illegal migrants, but the drugs are pouring through. Fentanyl is pouring through,” he warned.
At a rally in Mint Hill, North Carolina, the next day, where he was campaigning on the economy, Trump deviated to address the topic again by excoriating Harris.
“Kamala’s migrant invasion is particularly devastating the black community and the Hispanic community,” Trump said. “The jobs are going to illegal migrants that came into our country illegally, our black population all over the country, our Hispanic population are losing their jobs.”
The comments follow his previous remarks during the first presidential debate against President Joe Biden, where he claimed migrants were taking away from “black jobs.”
Immigration remains important to voters
Immigration is one of the top two issues, along with the economy, voters have consistently indicated is important to how they will vote. A recent Scripps News-Ipsos poll showed 59% of adults are closely following immigration at the southern border, while 33% said securing the border was the top priority on immigration.
The poll also showed 44% of those surveyed believed Trump will do a better job of handling immigration, which was 10 points higher than the 34% of those who said Harris would do a better job.
In Arizona, a border state and key battleground, Trump has an even larger advantage with 41% who said he would handle immigration better, 13 points higher than the 28% who said Harris would do a better job.
Trump’s lead over Harris may have much to do with his repeatedly slamming of Harris as Biden’s “border czar,” a title that the vice president has disputed.
Harris will travel to Douglas, Arizona, on Friday, which Trump slammed during his Thursday press conference, pointing to the rise in unauthorized border crossings.
“She’s going there tomorrow; after almost four years, she’s going there tomorrow to try and show you what a great job she did,” Trump claimed. “But even now, the numbers are terrible. And remember, they’re flying people over and they haven’t stopped that.”
He again reiterated his claims that illegal immigration hurts minority voters. “All of these people coming in are horrible for the black population and the Hispanic population,” he said.
Harris will discuss border security during her trip along with her support for the bipartisan border security plan that Trump pressured Senate Republicans to reject, according to a campaign aide who requested anonymity to discuss a trip still in planning.
The vice president will likely discuss her record as a former California attorney general prosecuting international gangs and criminal organizations as well as touting the several border town mayors in Arizona who have endorsed her campaign.
Immigration boosted Trump in 2016
Fueling negative resentment of immigrants helped Trump immensely during the 2016 GOP primary before he won the presidency, academic studies have shown, and helped him again during the 2024 GOP primary season, exit polls showed.
“The myopic focus on immigration is absolutely a benefit to the Trump campaign. He was able to talk about the issue and provide a solution in such a clear and concise manner,” national Republican strategist Brian Seitchik of Trump’s 2016 run. “He was able to get it down to three words: ‘Build the wall.’ It said everything.”
The former president claims he will implement massive deportations to decrease illegal immigration, limit migrant asylum seekers through the “Remain in Mexico” policy, finish building the southern border, and reinstate his controversial travel ban that bars people from countries with majority Muslim populations.
Harris has repeatedly slammed Trump’s immigration policy as not realistic and, in an interview with MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle on Wednesday, blamed Trump for killing the bipartisan border bill.
During an appearance at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute conference last week, Harris also touted her two-pronged approach on the issue.
“We must also reform our broken immigration system and protect our DREAMers and understand we can do both,” Harris said. “Create earned pathway to citizenship and ensure our border is secure. We can do both. And we must do both.”
The Haitian migrant controversy
Republican strategists see running on immigration as a key success for Trump, but they cautioned that his embrace of false rumors that Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio, were eating animals was a distraction from attacking Harris.
“I think among Republicans and independents, immigration is probably one of two slam-dunk issues and cases for Trump,” said Matt Dole, a Republican political consultant based in Ohio, who also cautioned against Trump falling into Harris’s trap on immigration during their presidential debate this month.
“I believe the president took the bait at the debate with Vice President Harris, who did not want to talk about immigration because her record on immigration is terrible,” Dole said. “It is not the most effective thing to be talking about cats and dogs in Springfield, Ohio, whether it’s true, whether it’s not, whether it’s rumors. What should be talked about in Springfield, Ohio, is the Biden administration giving perks to migrants instead of solving the immigration crisis.”
At the debate in Philadelphia, Trump revived the false claims that Haitian immigrants were eating animals, prompting correction from moderator David Muir. “In Springfield, they’re eating the dogs, people that came in, they’re eating the cats. They’re eating — they’re eating the pets of the people that live there, and this is what’s happening in our country. And it’s a shame.”
The comments are largely a distraction from addressing the border crises and much-needed immigration reform, GOP strategists and experts told the Washington Examiner. Trump needs to focus on the big picture and tie current failures to Harris, they say.
“The focus on immigration is correct now, but it’s not as clear or concise,” said Seitchik before pointing to the tens of thousands of voters in battleground states that will decide the election. “I don’t think that the former president’s discussion of immigration today, in its current form, is doing anything to win over college-educated suburban women in Phoenix, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Detroit because that is the game here.”
The controversy erupted in Congress this week when Rep. Clay Higgins (R-LA) posted and deleted a post calling Haitian migrants “wild” and “thugs,” prompting Congressional Black Caucus Chairman Steven Horsford (D-NV) to introduce a resolution censuring the Louisiana lawmaker.
Steven Hilding, a Nevada Republican strategist, claimed that Trump has made an increased effort to reach out to minority voters pointing to his speaking at Sneaker Con in Philadelphia earlier this year and even reaching out to Polish voters in Pennsylvania.
But Hilding said, “Trump needs to kind of attack the immigration issue from all around.”
“Trump has a pretty good selling point here,” he continued. “Showing the vulnerabilities of the Biden Harris administration, and now specifically Harris … I know Trump got a lot of heat for saying they’re taking black jobs. But it’s not just black jobs or Hispanic jobs; illegal immigrants are taking jobs from all Americans.”
GOP strategists claim minority voters are harmed by illegal immigration
The rise in illegal immigration disproportionately affects minorities, said Jeremy Beck, vice president of NumbersUSA, a group that favors reducing immigration levels.
“The greatest impact is on the lesser educated, the two-thirds of Americans who don’t have college degrees, and disproportionately, those are going to be black and Hispanic Americans,” Beck said. “Of course, it impacts all Americans. White Americans are probably the greatest number but disproportionately does affect black and Hispanic Americans.”
He also singled out black descendants of slaves, claiming there is data that shows when immigration rises, their wages stagnate, while Hispanic workers “are the group most likely to be in direct competition with the next wave of immigrants and so their opportunities get hit the most as well.”
The current unemployment rate for black workers is 6.1%, 5.5% for Hispanic workers, and 3.8% for white workers, according to a September press release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
In 2022, the nation’s foreign-born population reached a record 46.1 million with 23%, or 11 million, in the U.S. illegally, according to the Pew Research Center. That same year, the average unemployment rate for African Americans was 6.1%, 4.3% for Hispanic/Latinos, and 3.2% for white Americans, according to the BLS.
Beck called for a better immigration system that “reduces the numbers to a point where Americans and immigrants alike can thrive and communities don’t have to be overwhelmed” as a key move to increase support for immigration.
The Trump campaign, however, does not appear to be moving away from linking immigration to the economic concerns of minority voters.
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“Black voters are frustrated that Democrats continue to prioritize the interests of illegal immigrants over our own Black Americans who were born in this country — pouring millions of their hard-earned, tax-payer dollars into migrant shelters versus investing in Black communities,” said Janiyah Thomas, black media director for the campaign, in a statement.
“Latinos favor immigration policies that allow the orderly and legal entry and formalization of immigrants to the United States,” said Jaime Florez, Hispanic communications director for the campaign and Republican National Committee, in a statement. “Consequently, they do not agree with the fact that more than ten million have crossed the border illegally and will significantly delay the bureaucratic processes of those who did comply with the laws.”