Progressives stumble in Philadelphia on heels of mayoral win in Chicago
Ryan King
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Progressives suffered a setback in Philadelphia just a month after they notched a breakthrough victory in Chicago’s mayoral contest.
Crime took center stage in both elections, but in Philadelphia, Cherelle Parker, the more centrist aspirant who made beefing up law enforcement a forefront issue, prevailed, whereas Brandon Johnson, a progressive contender who was hammered on policing, ultimately won in the Windy City.
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“I can’t explain the nuttiness of Chicago. I am at a loss on that,” Republican strategist and former Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Charlie Gerow told the Washington Examiner. “I think it’s just that Philadelphians are smarter.”
Heading into the Philadelphia primary, some polls pegged Parker down against City Council member Helen Gym, who was backed by progressive darlings such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY). Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) backed Johnson in Chicago.
“I don’t think it’s necessarily a setback for progressives,” Matt Krayton, founder of political consulting firm Publitics, told the Washington Examiner. “I think Philadelphia races are just [about] good, disciplined, campaigning at the end of the day. And having that message, bringing that credibility to the issues that matter to people.”
Gym took incoming from her primary foes for not being tougher on crime but backed some measures, such as increasing foot patrols to crack down on violent crime. Out west in Chicago, Johnson worked to stave off similar attacks from rivals and vowed that he wouldn’t slash police budgets.
When the dust settled, both contests had similar results — initially. Parker easily bested Gym, who came in third place by 33% to 21.3%, according to the most recent vote count. In Chicago, Vallas ran ahead of Johnson by roughly 33% to 21.6%.
Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot was edged out in the initial primary bout, becoming the first incumbent to lose since 1989 and fueling conjecture that Chicago voters were in the mood for change on public safety. But unlike Philadelphia, the Chicago contest advanced to a runoff, where Johnson prevailed 52.2% to 47.8%.
“I think [Parker] absolutely would have been well-positioned heading into a runoff, but, again, it’s hard to hard to say exactly how things play out in different places,” Krayton said.
“I think if it were a runoff, Parker would win even bigger in Philadelphia,” Gerow surmised.
In Philadelphia, there was a 24% spike in “Part-One Offenses,” while homicides fell from 562 in 2021 to 516 in 2022, according to data from the Philadelphia Police Department.
Across the board, crime shot up by 41% between 2021 and 2022 in Chicago, with the jump over the past five years hovering around 20%, according to Chicago Police Department data. Homicides dipped from 802 in 2021 to 688 in 2022.
“That’s a real concern. You’ve got a terrible district attorney down there,” Gerow said. “Crime is a big, big factor. I mean, if you walk Walnut Street, see the condition of what used to be the crown jewel of Philadelphia is — I have to say that there’s a lot of work to be done.”
Crime wasn’t the only reason why Parker won, according to both Krayton and Gerow.
“Her personality was a big part of it,” Gerow said. “She has been charming … she was very personable, and people liked her.”
“I think she ran a solid campaign that spoke to voters’ concerns on a lot of different issues, focused on bread and butter issues, and was able to create a lane for herself and was obviously very successful in that,” Krayton said.
To Krayton, Parker’s prescription on crime also delved into underlying economic issues fueling violence on the city streets. He also stressed that he didn’t believe there was “a huge amount of daylight” between Johnson and Vallas on crime.
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“I think, ultimately, what Cherelle Parker did was articulate that credibility in being able to deal with both the symptoms but also then, taking a hard look at the causes — investing in the middle class, investing in jobs opportunity, things like that. So, it wasn’t just a one-size-fits-all [approach],” Krayton added.
Now that Parker has won, she will advance to a general election for Philadelphia’s 100th mayor, where Democrats are heavily favored. If she wins, she will become the first female and first black mayor of the city.