Trump’s main 2024 GOP primary opponent could be Trump fatigue
Mabinty Quarshie
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Former President Donald Trump may be the front-runner for the Republican 2024 presidential nomination, but as he faces more challengers, it may be his bombastic personality that could hurt him the most.
Trump has consistently led 2024 hopefuls in the GOP primary, but a recent CBS News-YouGov survey showed signs that Trump’s biggest factor in the race isn’t potential challengers like Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL); it’s voter fatigue.
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The poll showed 58% of GOP primary voters would vote for Trump, compared to 22% who would back DeSantis. Yet more than half of the voters who said they wouldn’t vote for Trump, 54%, said it was because Trump is “too controversial.” In a hopeful sign for Trump’s challengers, 65% of those not voting for the former president said it was because they “like other candidates more.”
Christopher Nicholas, a veteran Republican political consultant, said disillusionment with Trump isn’t a new fact. “Trump fatigue has been playing out with Democrats and independents for years now. And it’s more and more seeping into the GOP,” he said. GOP primary voters can be split into three groups, Nicholas said: those solidly for Trump, those who are lukewarm on Trump, and voters who want someone who isn’t Trump.
Potential contenders include DeSantis, who is not a declared presidential candidate but is expected to announce a campaign launch soon. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley was the first major Republican to enter the presidential race in February. Since then, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy have launched campaign bids. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) is expected to announce a presidential campaign later this month. Former Vice President Mike Pence is another 2024 hopeful who could announce a presidential campaign.
But none have been able to dethrone Trump’s hold over the GOP primary base.
“Trump is certainly the front-runner, but that doesn’t mean that he’s guaranteed victory,” said Matthew Grossmann, political scientist and the director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University.
In a Yahoo News-YouGov survey conducted April 14-17, Trump’s post-indictment bump seemed to be cooling. Trump led DeSantis by 16 percentage points (52% to 36%) in the April poll, but two weeks before that, the former president led DeSantis by 26 percentage points (57% to 31%).
Grossmann said there does appear to be an opening for a non-Trump candidate in the race, “but there would have to be obviously coordination around one alternative that would have to withstand scrutiny, and that is more of a test.” Past campaign cycles have shown several candidates who were the flavor of the month only to flame out. During the 2016 cycle, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush was widely seen as a front-runner before collapsing.
Still, it will be an uphill battle for any Trump alternative.
DeSantis, widely seen as Trump’s closest competitor, has faced some setbacks in a campaign that is not officially launched. Trump rolled out multiple endorsements from Florida’s congressional delegation while DeSantis visited Washington, D.C., last month. The former president is dominating the race with upcoming campaign rallies and a town hall with CNN, his first with the network in years. Plus, a spat with Disney has led several Republican lawmakers to criticize DeSantis’s conservative bona fides.
Further complicating DeSantis is the scrutiny that comes with front-runner status, something Trump has already had to endure. “Traditionally, a lot of attention comes with a momentary rise but also comes with more scrutiny. And the traditional model is when someone gets attention, they get a rise up, but then they also start to see more negative media coverage. And then that eventually erodes their support,” Grossmann said. “So the interesting thing now is that the entire cycle has already happened even though DeSantis hasn’t even entered the race yet.”
But that doesn’t mean DeSantis and other challengers are without hope in taking down Trump.
“DeSantis has struggled out of the box. That doesn’t mean he cannot improve,” said Mike Murphy, veteran GOP political consultant and co-director of the Center for the Political Future at the University of Southern California. “Obama was a terrible candidate when he first got in the presidential race. Hillary was running circles around him at the beginning. But if they can improve, they get a second and third look in the process. So that’s still an open question on DeSantis.”
Haley, in her campaign launch in February and in recent days, has argued for a generational change among political leaders. “America needs a new generation of leaders to renew our national strength and pride,” Haley wrote in a Fox News op-ed. “It’s why I support term limits for members of Congress, and why I’ve called for mental competency tests for politicians over the age of 75.”
Murphy suggested that Scott and Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA) could be viable 2024 candidates. Scott will announce his presidential campaign on May 22 and aims to run as the upbeat candidate who unites the United States, similar to former President Ronald Reagan. And Kemp has not indicated he will run for president. Others, like former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, would focus on appealing to enough independents to beat President Joe Biden if he ran.
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Nicholas, the veteran GOP consultant, said despite Trump’s dominance, it’s too early in the primary race to rule any candidate out. “I don’t think most Republicans want to spend one more day under President Biden,” he said. “So unlike in previous elections where winnability in the fall was kind of a minor issue, I think it’s going to be much more of a major issue at this time.”
Similarly, Murphy of USC concurred. “There is fertile terrain for a move-beyond Trump candidate out there. And the question is who will skillfully exploit it, if anyone?” he said.