US commander dismisses 2027 estimate for Chinese invasion of Taiwan: ‘Everybody’s guessing’
Mike Brest
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The U.S. commander of the Indo-Pacific region dismissed the prevailing assessment for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan in 2027.
Adm. John Aquilino, commander of the Indo-Pacific Command, told lawmakers on the House Armed Services Committee on Tuesday that he does not subscribe to the timeline set out by his predecessor and based on comments from Chinese leader Xi Jinping that China is building up its military in order to be prepared to take the independent island nation by force by 2027.
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“I know [Adm. Philip Davidson] came up with 2027. [It] was based on what Xi Jinping said, which was the challenge to his military to be prepared to execute if tasked by 2027. That was foundationally the approach of his comments,” he said. “Now, for me, it doesn’t matter what the timeline is. The secretary has given me this mission today, so I’m responsible to prevent this conflict today if deterrence were to fail, to be able to fight and win. So the timeline, everybody will have an opinion on when it is. I think everybody’s guessing. The intent and need for INDOPACOM, the department, industry, and everybody to go faster will help prevent this conflict.”
Jedidiah Royal, the Pentagon’s principal deputy assistant secretary for Indo-Pacific security affairs, warned about an increasingly aggressive and expanding Chinese military. Its continued and more frequent military exercises that encroach on Taiwan demonstrate its growing aggression, though the United States has countered that by continuing to engage in freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea.
Royal said China’s military is conducting “more dangerous and aggressive activities in the region” in an advanced copy of his testimony released by the Pentagon, adding, “In just the past 12 months, PLA aircraft and maritime vessels have continued to conduct inherently risky intercepts against U.S. ally and partner assets in the air and at sea, increasing the unacceptable danger of an accident.”
China’s “significant and fast-paced expansion, modernization, and diversification of its nuclear forces” could provide China with the ability “to leverage nuclear weapons for coercive purposes, including military provocations against U.S. allies and partners in the region,” Royal continued.
Chinese defense leaders have largely ignored outreach by their U.S. counterparts in recent months, which a top Pentagon official described as a ploy to spook the U.S. into leaving the region.
“And [Chinese officials take the view] that if we want to avoid crises, there’s a simple solution, and that’s just to get out of the Western Pacific and to abandon our alliances and partnerships and leave,” the Pentagon’s Colin Kahl, undersecretary of defense for policy, told Foreign Policy. “And leave that part of the world to be an exclusive sphere of influence lorded over by Beijing.”
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Earlier this month, Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said it was his belief that Chinese leaders believe conflict with the U.S. is “inevitable.”
“My understanding and my analysis of China is that at least their military and perhaps others have come to some sort of conclusion that war with the United States is inevitable,” he said. “I don’t believe war is inevitable. I don’t think it’s imminent. But I do think that we need to be very, very pragmatic and cautious going forward.”