What we know about the Pentagon leaks and what we don’t
Mike Brest
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The Biden administration is scrambling to respond to the massive Pentagon leak, with the size, scope, and perpetrator unknown, but it shines a light into classified information that wasn’t intended for release.
It’s unclear how many documents have been published on various social media platforms, and officials have declined to provide any sort of ballpark estimate. They also don’t know if this has stopped or if more could be revealed in the days and weeks ahead.
LEAKED PENTAGON DOCUMENTS SHOW HOW DEEP US HAS PENETRATED RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE
National Security Council coordinator John Kirby said, “We truly don’t know” if the leak has been contained on Monday.
Some of the documents that were posted online related to the war in Ukraine.
One document, labeled “top secret,” provided a bleak assessment of Ukraine’s highly anticipated spring offensive. This document, which was from early February, warned that large “force generation and sustainment shortfalls” make it more likely that Ukraine’s offensive will result in only “modest territorial gains,” according to the Washington Post.
There’s also a Feb. 23 overview of fighting in Ukraine’s Donbas region that predicted a “grinding campaign of attrition” by Russia that “is likely heading toward a stalemate, thwarting Moscow’s goal to capture the entire region in 2023.” The documents also indicate Ukraine has had alarmingly low levels of Western-supplied weaponry, specifically air defense and ammunition, which have long been concerns of Ukraine, though the leak demonstrates the severity of the deficit.
A different document also revealed that the United States had information from the Russian Ministry of Defense and knew of its plans to strike Ukrainian troop positions in two locations and when, demonstrating the long reach of the U.S. intelligence community that may have penetrated Russian President Vladimir Putin’s circle.
“I’m not going to speculate on impact on the battlefield, but I will say that, you know, the Ukrainians have demonstrated their capability and competence in this war,” Chris Meagher, assistant to the secretary of defense for public affairs, told reporters on Monday. “The president and the secretary have both made clear that the United States is going to be with them for as long it takes, and we’re going to continue to work to provide them with the capabilities, with the ammunition, with the equipment, and with the training that they need to be successful in defense of their sovereign territory, so that commitment continues.”
The Biden administration had already warned that China has considered providing lethal aid to Russia for use in the war while revealing that both Iran and North Korea had taken those steps, but one of the leaked documents revealed that Egypt may be involved as well.
President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi of Egypt directed subordinates to produce up to 40,000 rockets to be covertly shipped to Russia, according to a document dated Feb. 17 that also indicated the Egyptian leader planned to supply Russia with artillery rounds and gunpowder, per the Washington Post.
A U.S. government official said he or she had not seen intelligence to indicate this plan is coming to fruition.
Not all of the released documents focused on the war in Ukraine.
One leaked document labeled “top secret” purported to reveal that leaders of Mossad, the Israeli intelligence service, advocated for Israeli citizens to protest the new government’s proposed judicial reforms. The claim, if verified, would be a significant revelation given the agency is forbidden from wading into domestic politics.
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Another document purported to suggest that South Korean officials did not want to comply with a U.S. request to send weapons to Ukraine, though officials have said the contents were “altered” and “untrue.”
The two countries have a shared assessment that much of the information disclosed is altered,” deputy national security adviser Kim Tae-hyo said Tuesday, while South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s office said, “The allegations of an eavesdropping breach are completely untrue.”