Only 10% of House races were competitive in 2022; improvement in 2024 seems unlikely
Jack Birle
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House elections in 2022 were the first to use new districts formulated from the 2020 census, and the number of competitive races was strikingly low.
A report from Fix Our House found that 90% of House races in last year’s election were decided by more than 5 percentage points, meaning only 10% of races were competitive.
NORTH CAROLINA REDISTRICTING COULD GIVE GOP FOUR MORE HOUSE SEATS
Other takeaways from the report include the revelation that 35 of the 435 races were uncontested — 16 only had one candidate run, and 19 had only one major party candidate on the ballot. The report also decried independent commissions for not doing enough to foster competitive House races.
“States that used independent redistricting commissions saw only modest improvements in competitiveness and partisan fairness compared to those with maps drawn by state legislatures. While independent commissions are well-intentioned and one of the best approaches to fair districting within the single-winner district system, they are insufficient to fix the uncompetitive, unrepresentative nature of most congressional districts,” the report said.
Gerrymandered districts have been implemented in various states with the 2022 maps. Maps in states like North Carolina and Ohio may change again in 2024. The current maps are being challenged in court and would likely lead to less competitive races.
North Carolina’s 14 House seats are currently evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, but the previously enacted map, struck down by the court, would have likely set up the GOP with as many as 11 seats. If the court reinstates the struck-down map, it may lead to several new seats for Republicans.
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The report concluded that the solution for fixing the lack of competitiveness and avoiding gerrymandering from giving alleged disproportionate representation is proportional representation. Proportional representation would eliminate single-winner districts for House seats.
“Single-winner congressional districts are the building blocks of a perfectly dysfunctional system. This redistricting cycle should be the last time we subject Americans to their failures. To fairly represent all Americans in the legislative body that is intended to do just that, we need to adopt proportional representation,” the report said.