Republican tops poll as Washington gubernatorial favorite — if Inslee declines to run
Emily Jacobs
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A Republican topped a new poll as Washington state’s first choice in next year’s gubernatorial contest should incumbent Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee forgo reelection.
The poll, conducted by the Northwest Progressive Institute on March 7 and 8, asked 874 Washington voters who they would vote for out of four proposed candidates — Democrat Hilary Franz, Republican Bruce Dammeier, Democrat Dow Constantine, and Democrat Bob Ferguson — if Inslee opted against seeking a fourth term.
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Dammeier led the pack with 35% of the vote, followed by 21% for Ferguson. Constantine and Franz received 7% each. Another 30% of respondents said they were unsure who they would support. Dammeier is currently the Pierce County executive, though he served eight years in the Navy and two terms in the state House of Representatives. Ferguson is the state’s attorney general.
The institute said in a release about the poll results, published Thursday, that Dammeier’s 35% was an expected outcome of the survey.
“Dammeier’s 35% percentage is pretty much what we thought we’d most likely see,” the organization said. “In head-to-head questions in our statewide polling, we usually see declared or hypothetical Republican candidates in the mid to upper thirties.”
“The results suggest that Ferguson would have the advantage at the outset of a 2024 gubernatorial campaign among the three top Democratic officeholders in the state known to be interested in the job, but also indicates that there could be an opening for either Franz or Constantine to wage a competitive campaign, particularly if one of them decided to forgo running, resulting in just two credible Democrats competing for time, talent, treasure, and votes in the elimination round,” it added.
Inslee, who is the first to serve three terms as governor since Gov. Dan Evans in 1972, has been weighing whether to seek an unprecedented fourth term since his 2020 reelection. The state, which does not have gubernatorial term limits in place, has never elected a governor to four terms.
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The governor, 71, has kept up his fundraising efforts since his last win and has $1.5 million in his campaign account with more than a year and a half to go until Election Day. He also has a 2024 reelection campaign committee, according to Public Disclosure Commission filings. Inslee, who unsuccessfully sought the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination before backing President Joe Biden, has also been mentioned as a potential contender for the 2028 race. Winning a historic fourth term would catapult him to a higher level of national prominence among Democratic White House hopefuls.
An Inslee campaign consultant told the Seattle Times last September that the governor “is focused on protecting our pro-choice majorities and preparing for the next legislative session and hasn’t made any decisions about 2024 yet.”