COVID-19 could be DeSantis’s secret weapon against Trump in 2024
W. James Antle III
Video Embed
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) could ride his pandemic response to the 2024 Republican nomination over former President Donald Trump — if primary voters still have COVID-19 on their minds.
DeSantis’s approach to the virus and reluctance to lock down Florida‘s beaches and businesses helped elevate propel him to national prominence in the GOP.
Trump, by contrast, initially made Dr. Anthony Fauci the face of the pandemic response and followed most of his recommendations in 2020, although the former president increasingly chafed at the economic restrictions as the year went on.
BIDEN’S GAY MARRIAGE ‘EPIHANY’ STORY CONTRADICTED BY THE HISTORIC RECORD
“It is an edge on Trump,” Club for Growth President David McIntosh told the Washington Examiner. “Trump closed down the economy and had economic decline as a result. … Ron can say, ‘No, I looked at the health data … and I said, I’m not going to close things. And look at how good it is in Florida.’”
The DeSantis team knows this is an advantage. When asked last year how the Florida governor offered a contrast with President Joe Biden, a DeSantis spokesman led with the pandemic response. DeSantis, he said in a statement provided to the Washington Examiner, “utilized a freedom first, common sense approach to policy and decision-making. The people of Florida’s life and livelihood come first.”
“When others locked people down, Florida lifted people up,” the statement concluded. “Florida followed data and science but refused to make policy decisions based on fear. Florida protected jobs, businesses, families, and education, and freedom.”
“COVID is one reason why DeSantis is a stronger opponent against Biden than Trump is,” Republican consultant Brad Todd said. “For Trump, going back to COVID reminds swing voters that he was unpredictable. For DeSantis, going back to COVID paints a strong contrast with Biden’s kowtowing to the teachers unions and deceptive health bureaucrats.”
Well-wishers of a still-hypothetical DeSantis candidacy contend that Florida had a lower age-adjusted mortality rate from the virus than some blue states with heavy restrictions. Some Republican primary voters want a reckoning for officials who closed down businesses and schools.
“If you compare like California to Florida, age-adjusted COVID mortality were about the same,” DeSantis said last year.
The pandemic clearly cost Trump the presidency in 2020. The lockdowns interrupted the economic boom that was his strongest case for his reelection. It also appeared to eliminate independents’ patience for unconventional leadership.
Biden won voters whose top issue was COVID-19 by 66 points, according to exit polls. He carried voters who said it was more important to fight the virus than reopen the economy by 60 and those who named healthcare policy as their top priority by 25.
Democrats hope history repeats itself.
“COVID could play a role in the outcome of the 2024 campaign because former President Donald Trump is a candidate, and the plague defines Trump’s presidency,” Democratic strategist Brad Bannon said. “Trump could be caught in the crossfire over COVID. Damned because he did and damned because he didn’t.”
According to this thinking, the pandemic would remain a major liability to Trump in both the primaries and the general election.
“The theme of the DeSantis campaign is freedom, which means the governor might attack the former president for the restrictions he placed on Americans during the pandemic,” Bannon said. “Conversely, Biden might pummel Trump for failing to take aggressive action that could have saved hundreds of thousands of lives from the ravages of the deadly disease.”
The former president’s position on the virus seemed confused to some observers.
“Trump has been unable to figure out how to talk about COVID in a consistent way that helps him, almost from the start,” Todd said. “However, elections are mostly contested in the future, not in the past, and it will not be the driver for any candidate’s platform.”
This is the view of Republicans who would like to see the party move past old controversies.
“The biggest thing is looking forward. COVID is over,” a GOP strategist said. “It can inform biography and philosophy, but fighting over specific things during 2020 is a loser.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
Nevertheless, it is one issue among many that elevated DeSantis from needing a recount to win the governorship in 2018 to getting reelected by a nearly 20-point landslide last year. It is also a factor in why he could launch a top-tier presidential campaign months into his second term and an area where he can get to Trump’s right.
“DeSantis came out of COVID stronger,” another Republican strategist said. “Not many people can say that.”