Pope Francis at 10 years: How the pontiff has shaped the selection of his successor
Jeremiah Poff
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Pope Francis marked 10 years as pope Monday, capping a decade of tumult for the Catholic Church that has seen Francis aggressively fill the ranks of the group charged with electing his successor as he solidifies his legacy as the 266th pontiff.
During his pontificate, Francis has appointed 111 bishops to the College of Cardinals, a group of senior Catholic bishops easily recognizable by their signature red attire tasked with electing a new pope upon the death or resignation of the current pope.
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With the 10th anniversary of Francis’s accession to the papacy, there has been increased speculation about who could succeed the 86-year-old pontiff, who previously revealed he had signed a resignation letter that would only take effect if he were to become impaired. However, the pope recently dismissed speculation he would resign, saying, “The pope’s ministry is [for life].”
The pope has been remarkably candid about his health, telling the Associated Press earlier this year, “I might die tomorrow, but it’s under control. I’m in good health.”
Francis, who increasingly can be seen in a wheelchair, underwent surgery to remove sections of his large intestine in 2021. At the age of 86, he is the oldest reigning pope since Pope Leo XIII, who died at 93 in 1903. In contrast, Benedict XVI, who lived to the age of 95, resigned from the office of the pope at 85, and John Paul II died at the age of 84.
Only cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible to vote in the secretive papal election that takes place within the Sistine Chapel in the Vatican. The election is called a “conclave,” which means “locked room” in Latin. A two-thirds supermajority of votes cast is required to successfully elect a new pope. Members of the College of Cardinals who are considered likely candidates to become the next pope are nicknamed “papabile.”
By filling the ranks of the College of Cardinals, Francis has created a lasting legacy that will be most felt when the cardinals meet to elect his successor. Previous popes have likewise remade the college with an eye toward influencing the election of their successor. Paul VI famously expanded the size of the college of cardinals from 70 to 120 in 1970 while instituting the age cutoff. The move was widely seen as preventing the election of a pope who did not support reforms enacted by the Catholic Church during the Second Vatican Council and after.
There are currently 223 cardinals, of which 123 are under the age of 80. Pope Francis has appointed 81 of the 123 eligible electors.
Here are some of the cardinals considered papabile who could serve as the 267th pope.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin
Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin is often listed as a likely candidate to succeed Francis. The election of a Pope Parolin would resume a centuries-long run of Italian cardinals elected to the papacy that ended in 1978 with the election of the Polish Pope John Paul II.
The 68-year-old cardinal has been a member of the Vatican’s diplomatic corps for decades, serving under John Paul II and Benedict XVI prior to his appointment as secretary of state in 2013. During his tenure as the pope’s chief diplomat, he has met with numerous foreign leaders and engaged in a host of diplomatic negotiations, often as an intermediary.
His tenure as secretary of state has not been without controversy. Parolin has faced criticism for negotiating a 2018 deal with the Chinese government that allowed the Communist Party to choose new bishops for the world’s most populous nation. Cardinal Joseph Zen, the former archbishop of Hong Kong, has been particularly critical of Parolin and the agreement, calling it “immoral.”
Cardinal Peter Turkson
The Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Turkson was widely considered among the front-runners to become pope following the resignation of Benedict XVI in 2013, but the conclave ultimately elected the Argentinian Jorge Bergoglio, who took the name Francis.
At 74, Turkson is still six years away from losing his eligibility to vote in the papal election. He currently serves as chancellor of the Pontifical Academies of Sciences, the Vatican’s scientific research institute. He previously served as the archbishop of Cape Coast, Ghana, and held several other positions in the Vatican.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle
The former archbishop of Manila, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines would be the first pope from East Asia. At 65, Tagle is one of the younger members of the College of Cardinals.
In 2019, Francis appointed Tagle to lead the Congregation for the Evangelization of Peoples, the Vatican office tasked with overseeing the missionary work of the Catholic Church. Following a reorganization of the Vatican offices, Tagle was appointed as the pro-prefect for the Section of Evangelization of the Dicastery for Evangelization.
Tagle is widely considered to be among the Catholic Church’s more liberal bishops. He has previously advocated divorced and remarried Catholics to be admitted to communion, a practice that has long been forbidden because of the church’s prohibition on divorce.
Cardinal Peter Erdo
Archbishop of Budapest Peter Erdo is one of the longest-tenured members of the College of Cardinals, having been elevated to the rank in 2003 by Pope John Paul II.
Aged 70, Erdo will be able to vote in the papal election until 2032. During his time as archbishop of Budapest, Erdo has cultivated a more conservative reputation for his opposition to communion for divorced and remarried Catholics, as well as hard-line opposition to abortion and same-sex marriage.
In 2015, Erdo made headlines for saying European countries that accepted refugees would be engaging in human trafficking.
Other candidates
Predicting the next pope has been a notoriously futile exercise. Several other cardinals still of voting age have been considered papabile in recent years, but as they near the cutoff age of 80, the likelihood of election diminishes.
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Older papabile candidates include the 77-year-old Guinean Cardinal Robert Sarah, who was known to have a close personal relationship with Francis’s predecessor, Benedict XVI; the 78-year-old Cardinal Marc Ouellet of Canada, who has been a close adviser of Francis; and Austrian Cardinal Christoph Schönborn, 78, who has served as the archbishop of Vienna since 1995.
U.S. cardinals who have generated some papabile speculation include Cardinal Timothy Dolan of New York, 73, and Cardinal Sean O’Malley of Boston, 78.