Three potential roadblocks looming over Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign
Rachel Schilke
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Former President Donald Trump is wasting no time establishing himself as one of the front-runners in the Republican primary battle for president, with his latest stop in Iowa mirroring visits made by several other GOP leaders hoping to secure the White House in 2024.
The former president, like many other GOP candidate-hopefuls, has visited New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Iowa (key battleground states in the Republican nominating contest heading into 2024) to gather support and attack his opponents, painting himself as the only GOP candidate who can take back the presidency.
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Trump is facing significant hurdles that other presidential candidates do not have, such as federal and state investigations into actions he took while he was president and misconduct within his personal life and business practices. Meanwhile, the emergence of new and popular GOP lawmakers, such as Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), could prove to be a thorn in Trump’s side.
Here are three roadblocks in front of Trump’s campaign as the 2024 presidential race slowly approaches.
A possible criminal indictment
Trump could be facing a criminal indictment in the coming weeks after being invited to testify before a grand jury in the New York borough of Manhattan by prosecutors in District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office.
The grand jury is investigating payments made to porn star Stormy Daniels during the 2016 campaign to prevent her from going public about an alleged affair the pair had in 2005. Prosecutors are looking at the payments under the lens of campaign finance misconduct, alleging that the payment may have served as an improper campaign donation and could have contributed to his win of the presidency.
The former president is also being probed by the Justice Department for hundreds of classified documents discovered at his home in Mar-a-Lago, as well as actions he took leading up to and during the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the Capitol after the 2020 election.
If he is indicted by the Manhattan grand jury, it will be the first time criminal charges are brought against a former president.
Attorney Joe Tacopina said the investigation was “outrageous” and referred to Trump as an “extortion victim, saying the former president has “no plans” to testify before the court. He said on Monday that the Manhattan investigation, along with several others, is chasing after the former president due to his 2024 presidential bid.
“We have [here] distorting laws to try and bag President Trump,” he said. “I don’t know what it is, but clearly, this prosecutor and this prosecutor’s office has made an agenda of trying to get him. They’ve scoured his personal life and business life for seven years.”
Trump has long since called any investigations into his dealings as “witch hunts” with no basis in fact. It is unclear if an indictment would severely affect support for Trump’s reelection, as some polls have shown him in the lead and a favorite among GOP voters.
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Trump’s top potential 2024 primary rival
While no official candidacy announcement has been made, many people expect that DeSantis will throw his hat into the ring for the White House in 2024.
Before speculation surrounding DeSantis’s possible run escalated, the Florida governor was already viewed as Trump’s biggest threat and a rising star within the Republican Party after Florida’s GOP found success in the 2022 midterm elections.
DeSantis beat his Democratic opponent by double digits, exceeding Trump’s 2020 margin in the state and making history after winning Miami-Dade County, an area that leans Democratic. He was the first Republican candidate to win the county since 2002.
Since then, he has secured a handful of legislative wins that could provide him with a major boost should he enter the presidential race. The GOP-controlled House and Senate have pushed through seven bills as of early February, expanding the agenda that pushed DeSantis into the national spotlight in recent years.
Trump has ramped up his attacks against DeSantis, calling him Ron “DeSanctimonious,” “Meatball Ron,” and “Ryan DeSantis,” a blast at former House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI), whom Trump continues to press as DeSantis’s potential running mate. Ryan ran as Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R-UT) would-be vice president in 2012.
Trump’s shifting hold on the Republican Party
Trump’s strength within the Republican Party is on shifting sands. After a less-than-expected 2022 midterm result, GOP lawmakers were quick to blame the former president and his extreme right-wing candidates for their small majority in the House and inability to flip the Senate.
Some said the majority loser of the midterm elections was Trump himself, who endorsed several Republican candidates in the gubernatorial and congressional races who ultimately lost to their Democratic opponents, such as Kari Lake and Blake Masters of Arizona and Doug Mastriano of Pennsylvania.
Republicans are concerned over what a Trump versus anti-Trump war could look like within the party, as a division among GOP voters could make it easier for Democrats to win key seats and maintain control of the White House.
Several conservatives are hoping to nudge the Republican Party away from Trump and move forward from the former president’s continuous calls that the 2020 election was stolen. Republicans are wary of the fact that swing voters and independents will be much harder to attract to the GOP if candidates like Trump are on the ballot over a more centrist conservative candidate.
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Trump has nevertheless taken a slight lead in the polls, leading DeSantis in a hypothetical primary and significantly beating out Vice President Mike Pence and former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley.
A CNN poll released on Tuesday showed 40% of Republican voters backing Trump, compared to 36% preferring DeSantis as the GOP nominee. They were the only two candidates to receive double digits, with Pence and Haley at 6% each.