Russia’s war hawks say attrition has backfired in Ukraine: ‘We have no rounds’
Joel Gehrke
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Russia suffers from an ammunition shortage that extends beyond the Wagner Group mercenary forces, according to Russian complaints from the front that express anxiety about a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
“It’s not the issue of Wagnerites — the issue is about the whole front — everyone is lacking,” said Yuri Mezinov, a pro-Kremlin political figure from a Russian border region. “There are no rounds, you understand? None.”
Mezinov voiced his dismay amid a bloody slog around Bakhmut that has exposed bitter disputes between Wagner Group leadership and the Russian Defense Ministry, as well as numerous public protests from conscripts sent on doomed assaults. Their frank complaints argue that the Moscow’s embrace of a war of attrition has backfired — a stunning assessment, for pro-Kremlin analysts, that runs contrary to Russia’s historical reputation for mustering overwhelming numbers of men and materiel in wartime.
“Our boys are dying in hundreds. Not just boys, but the best of my people, Russian people, their generation, their grandchildren and great grandchildren will never be,” said Mezinov, per the War Translated Project. “I saw a lad — today he is gone. Because he diddm’t have enough artillery support. Along the whole front, we have a command to attack, we attack without fire support. Do we have problems with metal? Problems with metallurgists? Who can tell me? How is this possible?”
FEUD BETWEEN MERCENARIES AND RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT NEARS ‘BOILING POINT’ IN BAKHMUT
Russian forces have concentrated on Bakhmut for months in a protracted struggle that at times has caused Western officials to fear that Ukrainian military leaders had been sucked into a battle that would end in either defeat or a pyrrhic victory. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s team insists that they have turned the tables on Russian President Vladimir Putin, such that Russia is throwing away “a large part of its trained military personnel” through unrelenting attacks on well-defended positions.
“The real heroes now are the defenders who hold the eastern front on their shoulders and, sparing neither themselves nor their enemies, inflict maximum losses on them,” Ukrainian Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of the Ukrainian military’s Ground Forces, said Saturday. “It is necessary to buy time to accumulate reserves and start a counteroffensive, which is not far off.”
That outlook breaks with conventional wisdom in Western security circles, even those most supportive of Ukraine‘s war aims. Some of the most recent and dramatic initiatives to send military aid to Ukraine have been taken on the understanding that a longer war plays into Putin’s hands.
“This is the time if we want to bring this to a successful conclusion — and, of course, we should, and we do — we should look to bring it to a conclusion quickly,” British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said during a trip to Washington in January.
Paradoxically, Russia’s struggles around Bakhmut have sparked a disagreement in militarist circles about whether Ukrainian forces will launch a counter-offensive — or whether such a campaign is even necessary.
“I’m almost confident that this is ‘misinformation’ — otherwise, the military leaders would not be announcing it to the whole world,” said Igor Girkin, a former Russian intelligence officer and commander in Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014. “As part of the generally successful (for the enemy) conclusion of the ‘battle of attrition and gain of time’ that was deliberately carried out during the winter campaign by the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, no counteroffensives are needed.”
Prigozhin’s associates seem to fear an extensive attempt to sweep back Russian forces in eastern Ukraine.
“What is happening at the front really cannot but suggest that by accumulating forces along the entire line of contact … and in the Donbas, the enemy is preparing something like a revanche,” assessed an author at Reverse Side of the Medal, a Telegram channel affiliated with the Wagner Group, according to the War Translated project. “The maneuvers carried out by the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with a high degree of probability, are evidence of Kyiv’s preparations for a large-scale offensive.”
That offensive, the author continued, could break the land bridge between Russia and the occupied Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea — the strategically crucial territory where the war began in 2014.
“The loss of control over the Kherson region will mean the enemy’s approach to the borders of Crimea,” the RSOTM writer said. “As a result, the peninsula may be cut off from land communications. In no case are we trying to cause panic, we are simply analyzing the facts that are available and must be taken into account in combat planning.”
Such an extensive assault would test Russia’s ability to provide adequate supplies to forces that reportedly are ill-equipped for assault.
“Along the whole front, we have a command to attack; we attack without fire support. Do we have problems with metal? Problems with metallurgists? Who can tell me? How is this possible? How is this limit possible?” Mezinov said. “We have a limit because we fired indiscriminately without air reconnaissance … because someone didn’t think it through.”
Mezinov, a pre-offensive enthusiast for the war who claimed to be driving through a town in the Russian-occupied territory of Luhansk, predicted that the Russian conscripts would collapse in the absence of better-trained and equipped fighters.
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“If our boys get shredded, I’m confident the mobiks standing behind them won’t cope; they won’t do anything,” the Rostov businessman said. “This happens along the whole front. In the most metal-rich country, with grand metallurgic cities — we have no rounds.”