Top Senate targets for both parties in 2024
Jack Birle
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After a 2022 Senate election that had Republicans defending more seats, Democrats will be on the defense for 23 of the 34 seats up for election in 2024.
Of the seats open in the next cycle, Republicans will not be defending seats in states that President Joe Biden or former Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won in 2020 or 2016, while Democrats will be defending seven seats won by former President Donald Trump in 2016 or 2020. These seats will be the most likely targets for each party.
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Arizona:
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) will be a top target for Republicans in a state where Biden narrowly defeated Trump during the 2020 election and in which Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) narrowly defeated Republican Blake Masters in 2022. The centrist has halted Senate Democrats from getting rid of the filibuster and has worked with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) to curb some of the more liberal pieces of Biden’s agenda.
Florida:
Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) narrowly defeated then-Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) in 2018 to win this seat, bucking the “blue wave” in the Sunshine State that year. The seat is the Democratic Party’s best opportunity for a pickup in 2024, but the increasingly red state reelected Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) by nearly 20 percentage points and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) by nearly 16 percentage points in 2022.
Michigan:
Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) was reelected to the Senate in 2018 with her narrowest margin since she first won the seat in 2000, winning by only 6.5 percentage points in a “blue wave” year. Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) survived a tight reelection bid in 2020, beating his Republican challenger by only 1.7 percentage points in a state that voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. The state could be a pickup for Republicans, but they will need to recover from a bad 2022 showing that saw them lose the gubernatorial race by nearly 11 percentage points to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI) and control of the state Senate for the first time since 1983.
Montana:
Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) is seen as one of the top targets for Republicans for the next Senate elections. Trump won the state in 2020 by 16 percentage points, and Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) defeated popular Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) by 10 percentage points for reelection that same year.
Nevada:
Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) won her seat by narrowly defeating then-Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) in 2018 during a “blue wave” that swept Gov. Steve Sisolak (D-NV) into power. In the 2022 elections, Sisolak lost his reelection bid to Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, a Republican, and Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) narrowly held on to her seat. Rosen will undoubtedly be a target for Republicans as the party continues to make gains in the Silver State.
Ohio:
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) faces an uphill battle in his reelection bid in 2024 as the state trends toward the Republican Party. Trump won the state in 2016 and 2020, Gov. Mike DeWine (R-OH) won reelection in 2022 by nearly 25 percentage points, and J.D. Vance (R-OH) defeated Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) for the state’s other Senate seat by nearly 7 percentage points in 2022.
Pennsylvania:
Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) is likely to face a spirited challenge from Republicans after the party lost the seat previously held by Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) to Democrat John Fetterman in 2022. The state, which voted for Trump in 2016 and for Biden in 2020, will also likely be a key swing state in the 2024 presidential election.
Texas:
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) faced a tough challenge from Democrat Beto O’Rourke in 2018 and is likely to be one of the Democrats’ targets in 2024. Cruz, one of the most conservative members of the Senate, should be safe in his seat, but if Democrats field a strong challenger, the race could be closer than expected.
West Virginia:
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) is likely the most vulnerable Democrat in the 2024 elections, looking to win reelection in a state that voted for Trump in 2020 by almost 40 percentage points. The centrist Democrat has been key to blocking Biden’s more liberal agenda items, such as Build Back Better, but has been instrumental in getting large spending bills, including the Inflation Reduction Act, passed.
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Wisconsin:
Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) is likely to face a tough reelection bid in the key battleground state. Baldwin won by nearly 11 percentage points in 2018 but is seen as one of the targets by the GOP as the party looks to win the state’s 10 electoral votes in the presidential election. Trump won the state in 2016, and Biden won it in 2020. In the 2022 midterm elections, Gov. Tony Evers (D-WI) was reelected, and Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) also won in a tight race.