Gallego leads Sinema and Republicans in Arizona Senate 2024 matchup: Poll
Rachel Schilke
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Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) is leading Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) and several Republican candidates in a matchup for the 2024 Arizona Senate race.
The poll from OH Predictive Insights was released on Thursday, showing Gallego ahead in eight potential matchups, four with Sinema running as an independent and four with the Arizona representative facing a Republican.
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Four Republicans were included in the poll: former Gov. Doug Ducey, former gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson, former gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, and former Senate nominee Blake Masters.
Masters and Lake were among several candidates endorsed by former President Donald Trump who lost in the 2022 midterm elections.
Gallego leads in any three-person race including himself, Sinema, and a Republican. A matchup with Masters gives Gallego his biggest victory, as he leads that hypothetical by 9 points — he beat Lake by 8 points, Taylor Robson by 7, and Ducey by 5.
He also leads in a two-way race, with the margins spanning from 4 points against Ducey and Taylor Robson to 10 and 11 points against Lake and Masters, respectively.
“As of now, Ruben Gallego’s best bet would be the GOP nominating a Trump-style Republican and Kyrsten Sinema opting out of the race,” the poll summary stated. “However, if Republicans nominate a more moderate candidate, Republicans will be in a better position for a more competitive race with Sinema on the ticket.”
Sinema announced she was switching her party affiliation to independent just a few weeks after the 2022 midterm elections. The switch shook up the Democratic Party, as she took away their outright majority in the Senate, but it has not visibly shaken the balance of power, as she still caucuses with the party.
She joins Sens. Angus King (I-ME) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) as the third independent senator. King and Sanders also caucus with the Democrats.
“Sinema stands a better chance if Gallego does not run,” the poll summary stated. “However, assuming that is not likely, her best bet is that Ducey opts out of the race. Regardless, as the Arizona electorate stands now, it’s going to be an uphill climb for Sinema.”
The 2024 Senate races are shaping up to be a struggle for Democrats, as nearly half of the Democratic caucus — 23 senators — are up for reelection. Gallego’s entrance into the Arizona race is expected to create an even bigger headache.
Republicans view Arizona as a major opportunity to gain the majority back in 2024, so Democrats will have to decide whether to back Sinema as the independent incumbent or elect a new Democrat to the seat.
Gallego is the only candidate with a higher favorable rating than unfavorable, at 35% to 27%. Sinema has a 47% “total unfavorable” rating, compared to a 37% “total favorable” rating. Masters has the highest net loss in rating, with a 54% unfavorable rating and a 30% favorable rating.
There are approximately 3.5% more independent voters in Arizona than there are Democrats and less than 1% more Republicans than independents. Both Masters and Lake have considerably lost favorability among independent voters.
“What I take away from this data is that the two key factors in this Senate race will be the ‘style’ of Republican nominated to run and whether Sinema is also on the ballot,” said Mike Noble, OHPI chief of research. “But, there’s a long time between now and election day, which leaves plenty of opportunity for something to happen that can shift the dynamics of this race.”
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“Since the midterms, Lake and Masters’ images have taken a real hit among the all-important Independent voters,” Noble added. “Being well-liked is truly half the battle, but the best bet for any potential candidate to stay competitive in the coming election is to continue capturing more support from Arizona’s influential Independents.”
The poll was conducted from Jan. 31 to Feb. 9 with a group of 1,000 voters and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%.