Pentagon hopes to avoid war with China this decade
Joel Gehrke
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Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping wants to subjugate Taiwan this decade, according to a senior Pentagon official who expressed confidence that the United States can deter an invasion.
“Wanting to is quite different than doing it. I think they have intention. But I absolutely think we can get to the end of this decade without them committing major aggression against Taiwan,” Ely Ratner, the Pentagon’s lead official on Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, said to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Ratner focused on that time frame in response to a question from Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) during one of multiple congressional hearings this week that focus on the status and trajectory of U.S. competition with China. The geopolitical rivalry was dramatized most recently by a spy balloon that violated U.S. airspace, but military officials and lawmakers remain haunted by the prospect of a clash with China, especially over Taiwan.
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“We think this is quite critical,” Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, who appeared before the committee with Ratner, said of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan. “We believe we need to help them in asymmetric weapons capabilities, help them train and integrate their reserves, make sure that they have mobile and agile systems.”
Those weapons could figure decisively into the first moments of a prospective invasion from mainland China, given a widespread consensus that the U.S. can’t protect the island democracy if Taiwanese forces do not mount a stiff resistance from the outset. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen announced in December that she will extend military draft obligations from a four-month term to a full year of service beginning in 2024, a change that could allow for a larger and more capable Taiwanese fighting force.
“They’re going to need some help in — one, in training them, and two, how to train them because this is a new thing for them,” retired Adm. Harry Harris, who served as the U.S. ambassador to South Korea from 2018 to 2021, told the House Armed Services Committee on Monday. “But I do believe based on my time in Taiwan last week … that Taiwan is both resilient and understanding of the need for their self-defense. And this is driven a little bit by the Chinese move on Hong Kong, but most currently, by Russia’s move on Ukraine.”
Ratner expressed more confidence in America’s ability to deter China than four-star Air Force Gen. Mike Minihan, who predicted that Xi would try to invade the island in 2025.
“I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025. Xi secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022. Taiwan’s presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason. United States’ presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a distracted America. Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025,” the general wrote to subordinates this month.
Some House and Senate Democrats have bridled against such predictions, which they worry could help persuade China that it is necessary to strike soon. U.S. and allied policymakers also see a potential for conflict in other areas of the Indo-Pacific.
“Taiwan is not the only place that China claims at the moment, that we have to worry about whether or not they would use their military to achieve those objectives,” Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA), the House Armed Services Committee’s ranking member, said Monday.
China’s stance on the South China Sea, one of the most important waterways in the world, is perhaps the most expansive of its territorial claims. Those claims set the stage for “a sharp increase in unsafe and unprofessional behavior by PLA ships and aircraft” in the area, as Ratner previously has described, including “dozens” of close encounters with U.S. military assets.
“In my view, this aggressive and irresponsible behavior represents one of the most significant threats to peace and stability in the region today, including in the South China Sea,” Ratner said in July. “And if the PLA continues this pattern of behavior, it is only a matter of time before there is a major incident or accident in the region.”
In 2001, a Chinese fighter jet collided with a U.S. surveillance plane in international airspace, killing the Chinese pilot and resulting in the forced landing of the American plane on China’s Hainan Island. Chinese officials stripped the damaged plane of electronic equipment, which they refused to return — an episode brought to mind again in Washington by the downing of a Chinese surveillance balloon that violated American airspace last week.
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Chinese officials claim that the downing of the balloon “seriously violates international practice and sets a bad precedent,” even though it traversed the continental United States. Chinese military officials have refused to accept a phone call from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in the days since the balloon’s destruction.
“The PLA has continued to view the [military-to-military] relationship as something that they turn on and off to express displeasure with other things that are happening in the relationship,” Ratner told the Senate panel. “We think that’s really dangerous.”