Former US Pacific commander calls for end to ‘strategic ambiguity’ on Taiwan
Mike Brest
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A former Pacific military commander believes it’s time for the United States to change its long-held policy of strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan amid increasing tensions between the U.S. and China.
Retired Adm. Harry Harris Jr., who led what’s now known as U.S. Indo-Pacific Command from 2015 to 2018, provided insights on the latest aspects of the U.S.-China relationship to the House Armed Services Committee on Tuesday.
America’s policy of strategic ambiguity has dated back decades and essentially intentionally leaves it unclear to both parties whether they’d intervene if one side made a unilateral move to change the status quo. Taiwan has claimed its independence, while mainland China maintains it as a part of the country.
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“I think this issue of strategic clarity versus strategic ambiguity is critical, and we have been well served. I’ll be the first to say that by the policy of strategic ambiguity with Taiwan over the past 44 years,” he told lawmakers. “But I think the time for ambiguity is over. I think we have to be clear about our intent with regard to what would happen if the PRC invades Taiwan as the PRC is clear in its intent that it’s ultimately going to seize Taiwan, if need be.”
Over the course of President Joe Biden’s tenure, he has said on multiple occasions that the U.S. would come to Taiwan’s aid if China made a military move to take Taiwan, while administration officials reiterated after each instance that he was not highlighting or announcing a policy change.
China’s military, known as the People’s Liberation Army or PLA, has demonstrated an increased level of aggression toward Taiwan by sea and by air recently.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, at a press conference on Jan. 11, described China’s behavior as “very provocative” and said it was China’s “attempt to re-establish a new normal. So we’ve seen increased activity in — aerial activity in the straits. We’ve seen increased surface vessel activity around Taiwan. And again, we believe that they endeavor to establish a new normal, but whether or not that means that an invasion is imminent, I seriously doubt that.”
A four-star Air Force general sent a memo to the officers he commands in late January, informing them to prepare for a U.S. war with China by 2025. His opinion, however, is not shared by the department at large.
“I hope I am wrong,” Gen. Michael A. Minihan, who heads Air Mobility Command, wrote. “My gut tells me we will fight in 2025. Xi secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022. Taiwan’s presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason. United States’ presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi [Jinping] a distracted America. Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025.”
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Minihan’s opinion is widely shared in the department, though his timeline is sooner than others, including Austin.
Harris said the date of a possible conflict is less important than ensuring the military is prepared for whenever that time comes, if it does.
“I think the most important thing is less than a specific date. And the fact that our military is committed to defending the United States whenever an attack happens whenever they’re called upon and I think that Adm. Aquilino, who’s the current INDOPACOM commander, is doing just that,” he said.