Pollsters wrong again: A look at what polls predicted vs what happened on Election Day
Misty Severi
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Pollsters predicted a large red wave occurring during the 2022 midterm elections that failed to materialize by Wednesday morning, proving that once again pollsters can be inaccurate.
This year, Democrats have fared better than polling expected. Although Republicans remain poised to take control of the House of Representatives, the Senate is still too close to call and may not be determined until after the Georgia run-off election next month.
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Pennsylvania Senate:
One closely-watched race was the contest between John Fetterman (D) vs. Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) for Pennsylvania’s open Senate seat. Although polling predicted the race would be tight, Oz was expected to win. However, Fetterman was declared the winner Tuesday night with 50% of the vote.
RealClearPolitics projected an Oz victory with its latest average placing Oz just 0.4% ahead of his opponent. However, other polling from last week gave Oz a wider range of victory, with a Fox/Insider poll claiming Oz could win by 2 percentage points according to their estimates. Fetterman’s win was by 2.3 points and came despite the newly elected senator suffering a stroke just before his primaries.
New Hampshire Senate:
Incumbent Sen. Maggie Hassan won reelection Tuesday with a nine-point victory over opponent Don Bolduc, according to RealClearPolitics. She was expected to win by two points last week, and Democrats were increasingly nervous as Buldoc rose in the polls.
Bolduc was presented as a far-right Republican in a state likelier to back more establishment Republican congressional hopefuls during a wave election, according to Politico. Establishment Republicans pulled financial support for Bolduc just weeks before the election, signaling their distrust.
Arizona Senate:
Although the race for Arizona Senate has not been called as of Wednesday morning, RealClearPolitics predicted Blake Masters would defeat incumbent Mark Kelly (D-AZ) in one of the Senate’s closest races. However, polls had Kelly ahead by a healthy 6%, according to the Associated Press.
Marc Victor’s (L) name is still on the ballot after his last-minute decision to drop out and endorse Masters. Victor has snagged a little over 2% of the votes.
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Republicans additionally expected to pick up or keep multiple seats in the House of Representatives that were not successful. Rep. Mayra Flores (R-TX) lost her reelection bid to Vicente Gonzales in South Texas, and Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) won reelection, defeating Republican challenger Yesli Vega in a competitive race for Virginia’s 7th District.
Republicans currently hold 199 seats in the House of Representatives, according to the Associated Press, and need 19 more to get the majority. Democrats have 172, with 64 races still uncalled. Senate races in Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada remain uncalled, meaning control of the upper chamber is uncertain.