Scholz’s hesitance on tanks could make Germany ‘scapegoat’ for Ukraine’s losses
Joel Gehrke
Video Embed
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz followed his cautious instincts into an unusual and risky position as he hesitates to send tanks to Ukraine in advance of a major Russian offensive.
“Politically, he cannot afford being the scapegoat for a potential Russian victory,” a senior German military official told the Washington Examiner.
That unpalatable prospect has loomed into view as Western ebullience over Ukraine’s successes over the last year give way to a deepening unease about Russia’s preparations for a major new offensive. British officials have argued publicly for NATO members to arm Ukrainian forces to push for a victory in the war before Russia can prepare its next offensive, a proposal that reflects Western misgivings that the passage of time could enable Russia to correct the errors revealed by a year of military disappointments for the Kremlin.
“I don’t think the goals of the Russians changed, meaning they still want to take over Kyiv. They still want to control Ukraine,” another European official told the Washington Examiner. “After this experience that they’ve had since Feb. 24, if they regroup [and] refurbish their stocks, I think they may be much more dangerous.”
TOP PUTIN ALLY MEDVEDEV ESCALATES NUCLEAR RHETORIC AHEAD OF NATO MEETING
That prospect has heightened the importance of the Leopard battle tanks in the arsenals of militaries across the continent. Germany has refused to send its Leopards to Ukraine, with Scholz saying he will not do so unless President Joe Biden likewise gives U.S.-made Abrams main battle tanks, even though U.S. officials say that Ukrainians would struggle to use the American armor.
“The Abrams tank is a very complicated piece of equipment,” the Pentagon’s lead official for policy, Colin Kahl, told reporters this week. “It’s expensive. It’s hard to train on. It has a jet engine.”
More than a dozen countries own the German-made tanks, and several states — Poland foremost among them — have offered to donate some of their tank fleet to Ukrainian forces. But Scholz also has hesitated to approve those donations
“One can’t differentiate between direct exports [of German-made tanks] and exports by third countries,” a senior German official told the Wall Street Journal this week.
That policy is a source of frustration for Ukraine and the European states eager to donate the tanks, particularly given that British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak already has set a precedent by announcing that Ukraine will receive a squadron of the United Kingdom’s Challenger 2 main battle tanks.
“The chancellor is a very cautious man,” the senior German military official said. “Now, the U.K. has taken the decision, so he’s running out of excuses.”
The risk presented by the expected Russian offensive has helped to close a traditional gap in how different regions of the European Union assess the threats from Moscow. Western European powers tended to adopt a more congenial posture toward the Kremlin than their Central and Eastern European allies thought prudent, but the intense debate over the provision of tanks to Ukraine has revealed a chorus of supporters broad enough to stretch across the continent.
“The coming weeks and months will be decisive,” European Council president Charles Michel said Thursday during an appearance before the Ukrainian parliament. “You need more — more air defense systems, more long-range missiles and ammunition, and, most of all, you need tanks. Right now.”
That’s a ringing endorsement from a senior official who represents an organization that operates by consensus, as the EU does. France and Germany have towered together over the rest of the EU member-states in the years since the United Kingdom’s departure from the political bloc. Scholz is isolated even from French President Emmanuel Macron, who has decided to send light tanks to Ukraine and joined the throng of leaders urging Scholz to relent.
“I am moderately skeptical, moderately pessimistic because the Germans are defending themselves against this like a devil protects himself against holy water,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told reporters on Thursday. “They do not want to send their modern equipment, especially these Leopards.”
Such recalcitrance could take a toll on Scholz’s standing across the alliance, if he doesn’t change course.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
“The pressure on him from his NATO colleagues, but also in his own party and in the coalition, is big,” a senior German military official said. “I think it’s a bit his character — not being the first. He’s not Macron.”