President Joe Biden’s poll numbers one year out from the 2024 election have largely been underwhelming, and Democrats’ chances of holding on to the White House may come down to two voting blocs they have seriously relied upon in recent history.
Latino and black voters have typically voted with clear majorities for Democratic presidential candidates, but former President Donald Trump, Biden’s most likely rival in 2024, has been faring unusually well in recent polling, and the trend may be hard for the Left to reverse before November of next year.
A New York Times/Siena College poll released last month was the latest to show Trump with an outsize share of those voting groups. In the survey, Trump received 22% of the black vote when facing Biden, which would be a substantial increase from the 12% he received in 2020. The survey also showed Trump getting 42% of Hispanic voters in swing states, compared with 50% going for Biden, which would be a major increase from the 32%-65% deficit Trump had in 2020.
The pickups in these groups for Trump are likely more to do with opinions on the economy under Biden rather than a permanent shift for these voters toward the GOP.
“I keep looking for it as well, but you are not seeing as much evidence for a culture war driving any kind of change at this moment,” Carlos Odio, senior vice president for research at Equis Research, told CNN. “What’s driving Trump and the Republicans is the economy. At the end of the day, ‘It’s the economy, stupid’ over and over again.”
With continued above-average inflation, economics has not been a winning message for the Biden campaign with any group, even as he tries to deliver his policy of “Bidenomics.” An NBC News poll released earlier this week found 59% of voters disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy, compared with only 38% who approve.
Trump is the front-runner in the Republican presidential primary, leading the other candidates in all the early states and nationally, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.
In a hypothetical rematch of the 2020 presidential election, Trump holds a slight lead over Biden in the site’s national polling but has a definitive lead in several swing states.