House speaker fight shows Trump’s tenuous, but ongoing, hold on GOP
Christian Datoc
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House Republicans’ tumultuous path to electing Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) speaker underscores former President Donald Trump‘s shaky hold on the party, even as allies of the former and perhaps future president believe he could benefit in 2024.
McCarthy finally secured the gavel Friday night and quickly credited Trump with bringing Republican defectors, many of them staunch Trump allies, back onto the party line.
MCCARTHY ELECTED HOUSE SPEAKER FOLLOWING HIGH-DRAMA FLOOR FIGHT
“I don’t think anyone should doubt his influence. He was with me from the beginning … and he was all in. He would call me and he would call others and he really was — I was just talking to him tonight — helping to get those final votes,” McCarthy told cameras early Saturday, prompting Trump to take credit on social media.
“Thank you Kevin,” Trump posted alongside a clip of McCarthy’s comments. “It was my great honor!”
Many critics had pointed to Trump’s first and failed attempts to circle the wagons behind McCarthy as an indication the former president had lost his hold over GOP lawmakers.
Former Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-FL) claimed that McCarthy’s eleventh-hour victory showed how Trump “is no longer in control” of the Republican caucus.
“When I was in the House, those first two years of the Trump presidency, all of these members would say, ‘Wait, hold on. Let’s see what the president is going to do. Let’s see what the president is going to say,'” he said on Meet the Press. “I think that’s over.”
Several of the anti-McCarthy Republicans, including Reps. Lauren Boebert (R-CO), Michael Cloud (R-TX), and Ralph Norman (R-SC), publicly stated that Trump’s endorsement of McCarthy wouldn’t sway their vote.
Boebert went so far as reportedly urging Trump in private to reverse his support of McCarthy.
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), another Trump-backing McCarthy opponent, similarly responded to Trump’s original overtures with one of the former president’s own preferred social media comebacks: “Sad!”
Still, nearly a dozen Trump-linked Republican officials and operatives, including multiple advising his campaign, suggested that Trump could take advantage of the chaos surrounding the McCarthy vote.
“President Trump knew that Speaker McCarthy was the best option to uniting the House behind a strong Republican banner and pushing back on Biden and Democrats’ radical agenda,” one such official said. “This wasn’t about personal beefs. This was about doing what’s best for the Republican Party and the country.”
“At the end of the day, President Trump proved he can roll up his sleeves and get things done in Washington,” a second person added. “It took a few days, but he isn’t in office at the moment, and that’s to be expected. The end result is all that matters.”
Two Trump campaign veterans who are not working on his 2024 effort said they believed that Trump’s “visibly weakened” grip on the party will prompt more Republicans to challenge him in the primary, which could help him secure the nomination.
“With everything happening right now, it looks like Trump would lose a head-to-head against [Gov. Ron] DeSantis, but Trump’s odds improve with a crowded primary,” one former Trump campaign staffer said. “He needs this to turn into 2016 again, where people like [former Vice President Mike] Pence and [Sen. Tim] Scott potentially pull votes away from DeSantis, while Trump can rally his die-hard MAGA base.”
Meanwhile, Democrats are highlighting Trump’s role as the Republican Party’s “kingmaker” following the speaker fight.
“After Kevin McCarthy failed to win the speaker’s gavel in his own right 14 times, Donald Trump swooped in last Friday to whip House MAGA Republicans and delivered the GOP speakership to McCarthy,” the Democratic National Committee said in a statement. “Let’s be perfectly clear: This new McCarthy speakership is controlled by Trump and the most extreme MAGA wings of the Republican Party.”
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Furthermore, data indicate that Trump’s sway over Republican voters has started to creep back up following months of legal obstacles and the GOP’s underperformance in the midterm elections.
A poll published by CBS on Jan. 8, just days after McCarthy credited Trump for helping him win the speaker race, showed 65% of Republicans voicing lawmakers “being loyal” to Trump as important to them, while 81% said they preferred candidates who support policies and proposals similar to Trump’s own.