THE RUSSIANS ARE COMING: Four Russian warships were tracked as they cruised in international waters off the coast of Florida yesterday en route to Cuba for planned exercises in the Caribbean, in what U.S. officials describe as an attempt by Russian President Vladimir Putin to show the Russian navy can still project power despite the humiliating loss of a third of its Black Sea Fleet to Ukrainian drones and missiles.
CNN showed pictures of the ships last night taken by a passenger on a Celebrity cruise line ship, about 90 miles off the coast.
The Russian Defense Ministry said the Admiral Gorshkov frigate, flagship of Russia’s Northern Fleet and said to be armed with Russia’s new Zircon hypersonic missiles, and the Kazan nuclear-powered submarine, capable of firing modern Kalibr cruise missiles, conducted drills in the Atlantic meant to simulate a missile strike on a group of enemy ships.
The drills were touted on Russian state television as a demonstration of Moscow’s global reach. The Cuban Foreign Affairs Ministry said the Russian warships will arrive in Havana today and stay for about five days, noting the ships are not carrying nuclear weapons and do not represent a threat to the region.
US: NO BIG DEAL: The show of force from Putin’s navy drew little reaction from Washington, with officials saying that just like the U.S. Navy, the Russians have a right to sail in international waters wherever they want. Nevertheless, the U.S. is carefully tracking the vessels with Navy and Coast Guard ships.
“This isn’t the first time they’ve done this. They’ve done it several years past — almost every couple of years or so they do this,” White House national security communications adviser John Kirby said on CNN last week. “So we’ll watch it closely, but we’re not anticipating any significant national security threat as a result of these exercises.”
“We believe it is messaging by the Russians who are clearly unhappy now that we’ve got the supplemental funding and we are supplying Ukraine with weapons,” Kirby said. “We have five packages in just the last month of weapons. We think some of this is also posturing and saber-rattling by the Russians.”
PUTIN RATTLED BY WESTERN WEAPONS: The Russian naval exercise in America’s backyard comes after Putin has continued to rail against the Western weapons Ukraine is using to great effect, especially in occupied Crimea, where there is no limit on the use of long-range missiles supplied by allies.
In his meeting with international journalists last week, Putin not only complained about the modern missiles that have recently destroyed some of Russia’s top-of-the-line air defenses and disrupted supply routes into the south, but he accused the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany of picking the targets and providing the expertise to program the guidance systems.
“A multiple launch rocket system, a long range of 70 kilometers or something similar — it has been used for a long time. In fact, Ukrainian military personnel can do this on their own,” Putin said. “As for advanced high-tech, high-precision, and long-range weapons, such as the British Storm Shadow or the American ATACMS or French missiles, what can we say? … Ukrainian military personnel cannot do everything on their own and launch strikes with this missile. They are simply technologically unable to do this because it requires satellite reconnaissance.”
“They are not the ones who decide whether a particular target should be hit because, to reiterate, a WTA [weapon target assignment] is formed and effectively entered only by those who supply the weapons,” Putin said. “If we are talking about ATACMS, then the Pentagon is doing it. If it is Storm Shadow, then the British are.”
“If we see that these countries are being embroiled into a war against us and this constitutes their direct involvement in the war against the Russian Federation, we reserve the right to respond in kind,” Putin continued. “If someone is thinking that it is possible to supply such weapons to a war zone in order to deliver strikes at our territory and to create problems for us, why can we not supply our weapons of the same class to those regions around the world where they will target sensitive facilities of the countries that are doing this to Russia? The response could be symmetrical. We will give it a thought.”
LESSONS FROM THE BATTLE OF THE BLACK SEA
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is heading to Brussels today for tomorrow’s meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contract Group followed by a two-day gathering of NATO defense ministers.
Austin is expected to confirm reports that the United States will provide a second Patriot missile system to Ukraine as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been pleading for more of the premier air defense system that has proven highly effective in downing Russian missiles, drones, and aircraft.
At a meeting of the Bucharest Nine in Riga, Latvia, yesterday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said NATO is preparing to take a series of actions at next month’s summit in Washington to play a “greater role for NATO in coordinating training and equipment for Ukraine.”
“We must maintain this level of support for as long as necessary to ensure fresh funding every year,” Stoltenberg said. “Credible, long-term support sends a clear message to President Putin that he cannot wait us out.”
BIDEN TO ITALY FOR G7 SUMMIT: President Joe Biden departs today for the G7 leaders’ summit in Apulia, Italy, which begins tomorrow.
“At the G7 meeting later this week, our commitment to Ukraine will continue to be right up front and clear. We will take bold steps to show Mr. Putin that time is not on his side and that he cannot outlast us as we support Ukraine’s fight for freedom,” John Kirby told reporters in a White House teleconference.
“We will announce new steps to unlock the value of the immobilized Russian sovereign assets to benefit Ukraine and to help them recover from the destruction that Mr. Putin’s army has caused,” Kirby said. “On Thursday, President Biden and President Zelensky will sit down to discuss our strong support for Ukraine now and into the future. And following that meeting, both leaders, President Biden and President Zelensky, will participate in a news conference.”
“We’re going to continue to drive up costs for the Russian war machine, and this week, we will announce an impactful set of new sanctions and export control actions,” he added.
A HELLUVA TAIWAN STRATEGY: One of the more quotable lines to come out of the Shangri-La Dialogue two weeks ago in Singapore came on the sidelines of the defense summit in an interview the new head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Adm. Samuel Paparo, gave to Washington Post columnist Josh Rogin.
In discussing the strategy to deter China from trying to take the self-governing island of Taiwan by force, Paparo confirmed the plan is to convince Beijing any invasion force would be quickly overwhelmed by swarms of thousands of new drones that would tie up China’s military until help could arrive.
“I want to turn the Taiwan Strait into an unmanned hellscape using a number of classified capabilities,” Paparo told Rogin. “So that I can make their lives utterly miserable for a month, which buys me the time for the rest of everything.”
When Rogin pressed for details, Paparo replied, “I can’t tell you what’s in it, but it’s real and it’s deliverable.”
The so-called Hellscape strategy is drawn directly from the lessons of the war in Ukraine, where Ukrainian defenders have used low-cost disposable drones in innovative and effective asymmetric warfare to overcome Russia’s conventional military superiority.
“They want to offer the world a short, sharp war so that it is a fait accompli before the world can get their act together,” Paparo said. “My job is to ensure that between now and 2027 and beyond, the U.S. military and the allies are capable of prevailing.”
“The region has got two choices. The first is that they can submit, and as an end result give up some of their freedoms … or they can arm to the teeth,” Paparo told Rogin. “Both cases have direct implications to the security, the freedom, and the well-being of the citizens of the United States of America.”
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THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Hamas gives response to ceasefire proposal
Washington Examiner: Israel and Hamas may have committed war crimes related to hostage rescue, UN warns
Washington Examiner: Blinken says Netanyahu ‘reaffirmed his commitment’ to ceasefire proposal
Washington Examiner: Hamas leader suggests civilian deaths are ‘necessary sacrifices’ in war with Israel: Report
Washington Examiner: US soldiers nine times more likely to die by suicide than in action: Pentagon
Washington Examiner: House Republicans tee up vote to hold Garland in contempt of Congress
Washington Examiner: Eight men arrested on suspicion of ISIS ties in major US cities
Washington Examiner: Urgent border terrorist threat highlighted by Tajik arrests
Washington Examiner: Mexican cartel suspected in murders of five rideshare drivers near border
Washington Examiner: Opinion: China’s self-defeating Dutch gun barrel diplomacy
Washington Post: Hamas Responds To U.S.-Backed Cease-Fire Plan, Seeks Timeline On End Of War
New York Times: Hezbollah Says Commander Was Killed In An Israeli Strike In Southern Lebanon
Reuters: Russian barrage leaves Kyiv residents without power and water
Wall Street Journal: The Brash CEO Leading the Quest to Arm Ukraine
Washington Post: Poll: Many Ukrainians See A Stalemate But Remain Hopeful
Reuters: North Korea’s Kim Boasts Of ‘Invincible’ Ties With Russia Amid Talks Of Putin Visit
Wall Street Journal: How Ambitious Plans For A Floating Aid Pier Off Gaza Fell Apart
VOA: Former CENTCOM commander to VOA: President picked ‘worst’ choice in Afghanistan withdrawal
Defense News: White House Takes Aim At Shipbuilding, Other Measures In Defense Bill
Stars and Stripes: White House Rejects 20% Pay Raise For Junior Troops, End Of Marijuana Testing For Recruits
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Pay Raise for Junior Enlisted Faces White House Opposition, High Cost Estimates
The War Zone: Showdown Brewing Over Ballistic Missile Interceptor Site on East Coast
Wall Street Journal: The U.S. Military’s Race To Save A Crucial Missile Test Site From The Sea
Defense One: How Estonia Is Becoming a Hotbed for Drone Warfare
Air & Space Forces Magazine: It’s Not Replicator, CCA, or Weapon, Yet. What Is the Enterprise Test Vehicle?
SpaceNews: Pentagon Embracing SpaceX’s Starshield for Future Military SATCOM
Defense News: US Space Force Plans to Boost Competition for Launch Business. Will It Work?
AP: As Congress Investigates the Osprey, Families Balance Grief with Pilots’ Love for the Warplane
Air & Space Forces Magazine: After 2 Years of Change, What’s Next for the Air Force Expeditionary Center
Air & Space Forces Magazine:
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Behind the Scenes at NATO’s One-on-One Fighter Competition
Breaking Defense: ‘Not Just Another Jobs Board’: DOD’s ‘GigEagle’ Initiative to ID Short-Term Pentagon Talent
Aviation Week: Boeing Reveals New Air Dominance Engineering Site
Defense News: DIU Gets New Military Deputy
THE CALENDAR:
WEDNESDAY | JUNE 12
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: beginning at 9 a.m., on a new report, “A Global South with Chinese Characteristics,” with Demetri Sevastopulo, Financial Times U.S.-China correspondent; David Shullman, senior director, Atlantic Council Global China Hub; Niva Yau, nonresident fellow, Atlantic Council Global China Hub; William Piekos, nonresident fellow, Atlantic Council Global China Hub; Oscar Meywa Otele, nonresident fellow, Atlantic Council Global China Hub; and Victoria Chonn-Ching, nonresident fellow, Atlantic Council Latin America Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/a-global-south
10 a.m. 2172 Rayburn — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing: “Great Power Competition in the Western Hemisphere,” with testimony from Brian Nichols, assistant secretary of state for Western Hemisphere affairs; Todd Robinson, assistant secretary, State Department Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs; Michael Camilleri, acting assistant administrator, Bureau for Latin America and the Caribbean, U.S. Agency for International Development https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/great-power-competition
10 a.m. 2167 Rayburn — House Transportation and Infrastructure Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Subcommittee hearing: “Recapitalization of the U.S. Coast Guard.” http://transportation.house.gov
10:30 a.m. 2154 Rayburn — House Oversight and Accountability National Security, the Border, and Foreign Affairs Subcommittee hearing: “Addressing Oversight and Safety Concerns in the Department of Defense’s V-22 Osprey Program,” with testimony from Vice Adm. Carl Chebi, commander of U.S. Naval Air Systems Command; Peter Belk, performing the duties of the assistant secretary of defense for readiness; and Gary Kurtz, program executive officer for air anti-submarine warfare and special missions programs in the Defense Department http://oversight.house.gov
11 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW — Henry Stimson Center virtual discussion: “India’s Post-Election Foreign Policy,” with former Indian Envoy to Pakistan Ajay Bisaria; Sohini Bose, associate fellow, Observer Research Foundation; and Jabin Jacob, associate professor at Shiv Nadar University https://www.stimson.org/event/indias-post-election-foreign-policy
12 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW — Henry Stimson Center discussion: “Opportunities for strategic partnership across the Indo-Pacific,” with Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell https://www.stimson.org/event/a-conversation-with-kurt-campbell/
12 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “The New Iron Triangle: Achieving Adaptability and Scale in Defense Acquisition,” with Rep. Robert Wittman (R-VA); Aditi Kumar, Defense Innovation Unit; Lt. Gen. Robert Collins, Army Acquisition Corps; Mitch Skiles, Palantir Technologies; Andy Green, HII Mission Technologies; Joe Laurenti, Ursa Major; Michael Brasseur, Saab; Michael Hiatt, Epirus; and Josh Martin, Varda Industries https://www.hudson.org/events/new-iron-triangle
1 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual book discussion: Lost Decade: The U.S. Pivot to Asia and the Rise of Chinese Power, with co-author Robert Blackwill, senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy, Council on Foreign Relations; co-author Richard Fontaine, CNAS CEO; and Ellen Nakashima, Washington Post national security reporter https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-event-lost-decade
2 p.m — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Understanding the Growing Collaboration Between Russia and Iran,” with Jon Alterman, director, CSIS Middle East Program; Max Bergmann, director, CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program; and Hanna Notte, nonresident senior associate, CSIS Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program https://www.csis.org/events/understanding-growing-collaboration
3:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “Integrating Space for the Joint Fight,” with Col. Bryon McClain, program executive officer for space domain awareness and combat power at Space Systems Command; Shannon Pallone, program executive officer for battle management command, control, and communications at Space Systems Command; Stephen Kitay, senior director of Microsoft’s Azure Space; Nate Notargiacomo, head of HEO USA; and Frank Di Pentino, chief strategy officer, True Anomaly https://www.csis.org/events/integrating-space-joint-fight
4:30 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual book discussion: Battleground Ukraine: From Independence to the War with Russia, with author Adrian Karatnycky, Atlantic Council nonresident senior fellow, and David Frum, staff writer, the Atlantic https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/book-launch-battleground
THURSDAY | JUNE 13
TBA Brussels Belgium — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin hosts the 23rd meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. Introductory remarks and post-meeting news conference livestreamed at https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events/
TBA Brussels, Belgium — Meeting of NATO defense ministers June 13-14, with news conferences both days from NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_225365.htm
8 a.m. 7920 Jones Branch Dr., McLean, Virginia — Potomac Officers Club 2024 Army Summit, with Doug Bush, assistant Army secretary for acquisition, logistics, and technology, and Army Chief Information Officer Leonel Garciga https://potomacofficersclub.com/events/poc-9th-annual-army-summit/
9:30 a.m. — U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission virtual hearing, “China’s Stockpiling and Mobilization Measures for Competition and Conflict” https://www.uscc.gov/hearings/chinas-stockpiling-and-mobilization-measures
10 a.m. 1501 Langston Blvd., Arlington, Virginia — Air and Space Forces Association discussion: “Air Force efforts to prepare for great power competition,” with Air Force chief of staff Gen. David Allvin https://www.afa.org/events/air-space-warfighters-in-action
10 a.m. 2172 Rayburn — House Foreign Affairs Oversight and Accountability Subcommittee hearing: “The Plight of Americans Detained Abroad,” with testimony from Rena Bitter, assistant secretary of state for consular affairs; Roger Carstens, State Department special presidential envoy for hostage affairs; and Raj Maan, director of the FBI’s Hostage Recovery Fusion Cell http://foreignaffairs.house.gov
2 p.m. 310 Cannon — House Homeland Security Committee hearing: “A Cascade of Security Failures: Assessing Microsoft Corporation’s Cybersecurity Shortfalls and the Implications for Homeland Security,” with testimony from Microsoft Vice Chairman and President Brad Smith http://homeland.house.gov