Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s forces will take Kyiv “in the not too distant future” if House Republicans continue to delay aid for Ukraine, according to a senior Democratic lawmaker.
“I don’t know that the public, more broadly, [understands] just how close to the edge Ukraine is right now,” Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA), the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, said during a Tuesday hearing. “If they were to get more weapons, they could successfully defend their country. … Absent that, you will see Russia in Kyiv in the not too distant future. We need to get that support to Ukraine now.”
Ukrainian forces have faced steadily worsening battlefield conditions in recent months, as a lapse in ammunition and air defense interceptors from the United States has left them increasingly exposed to Russian attacks. A group of backbench Republicans who oppose the aid have deterred House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) from scheduling a vote on Senate-passed defense spending supplemental legislation by threatening to move for his ouster despite bipartisan majorities in support of the legislation in both chambers of Congress.
“To continue to neglect the task in front of Congress right now would only compound the problem,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said Tuesday on the Senate floor. “Addressing the linked threats to America’s national security interests isn’t about cooking up ‘bogus justifications.’ It’s about dealing with the world as it is. Our House colleagues will soon record whether they’re prepared to do exactly that.”
Johnson has unveiled a plan to vote on the supplemental funding, but he intends to hold separate votes on the various major parts of the Senate-passed bill. The Senate version bundled Ukraine aid together with support for Israel and Taiwan and other priorities. Smith warned that such a “convoluted process” could lead to another extended delay because the House-passed legislation would have to go back to the Senate for additional consideration and debate.
“Best-case scenario, if they pull this together, maybe two months from now, we’re able to figure this out, once it goes back to the Senate with all of these additional provisions to it that the Senate has to sort its way through?” Smith said. “That is basically boiling Ukraine to death slowly.”
Russian forces have expanded their bombardment of civilian Ukrainian energy infrastructure and the military front lines, with sometimes devastating effect, according to analysts.
“The Russians are breaking out of positional warfare and beginning to restore maneuver to the battlefield because of the delays in the provision of U.S. military assistance to Ukraine,” the Institute for the Study of War’s Frederick Kagan wrote on Tuesday. “Since the beginning of this year, Russian forces have seized over 360 square kilometers — an area the size of Detroit. Russian advances will accelerate absent urgent American action. … Further delaying or stopping American military assistance will lead to dramatic Russian gains later in 2024 and in 2025 and, ultimately, to Russian victory.”
Johnson, who moved into the speaker’s office after a backbench Republican coup against former California Rep. Kevin McCarthy, has been haunted by the dilemma of how to navigate the Ukraine aid debate without facing the same fate as his predecessor. Even Johnson’s compromise maneuver to hold four stand-alone votes drew a mutinous response.
“I asked him to resign,” Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) told CNN on Tuesday. “He said he would not. And then I said, ‘Well, you’re the one who’s going to put us into this,’ because the motion is going to get called up. OK. Does anybody doubt that? The motion will get called up, and then he’s going to lose more votes than Kevin McCarthy, and I have told him this in private, like, weeks ago.”
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House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-AL), for his part, called for Johnson to move for a rapid passage of the legislation, which he cast as an essential enhancement of the U.S. Army’s budget.
“For as bad as the budget request is for the Army, it will get much worse if Congress fails to pass the national security supplemental — this week,” Rogers said. “Without supplemental funding to replace the weapons we’re providing and expand the industrial base, the Army will be hard-pressed to meet operational requirements in the event of a conflict with China.”