In the run-up to Russia’s presidential elections with predetermined results, President Vladimir Putin is trying to convince the world that Russia is winning the war with Ukraine. This propaganda offensive is directed at Western officials to halt military aid for Kyiv and allow Russia to keep Ukraine’s occupied territories.
Unfortunately for Moscow, its assertions contradict reality, as Kyiv is exposing Russia’s military and economic weaknesses on an almost daily basis.
Russian forces are unable to seize any significant territory even though Ukraine has temporarily halted its counteroffensive while waiting for new supplies of ordnance. Despite the obstruction in U.S. military aid, European countries are funding nearly a million artillery rounds for Kyiv that will help boost the decimation of Moscow’s military.
Russia has already lost half of its professional military in Ukraine, estimated at over 300,000 troops; its military modernization has stalled with massive losses of armored vehicles; its Black Sea Fleet has been largely incapacitated; its air force has lost over a dozen warplanes in recent weeks; and Moscow increasingly relies on North Korea and Iran for military supplies.
Ukraine’s successes on the battlefield in the past two years in rolling back Russian forces from the suburbs of Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson have demonstrated the limitations of a Russian army that was widely touted as invincible.
Equally important are Ukraine’s initiatives inside Russia, as they underscore that the imperial state is fragile and vulnerable to disruption. A combination of sabotage operations and missile and drone strikes have become an effective tool for Kyiv, with an increasing number of legitimate targets as Russia transforms itself into a war economy.
Ukrainian drone strikes regularly target Russia’s energy industry, such as fuel and gas export terminals, oil refineries, and depots. This has contributed to a sharp decline in Moscow’s gasoline exports and earnings. Other targets include air defense factories producing ballistic missiles and tanks and iron ore plants. The destruction of Russia’s military-related facilities has several positive repercussions.
First, it demonstrates that Russia is becoming more exposed, as many of its air defense systems have been deployed in Ukraine or the border regions. Second, it highlights the growing sophistication of Ukraine’s drone warfare, which can precisely hit targets at a distance of several hundred kilometers. Third, every destruction of Russia’s fuel supplies, port facilities, railway networks, and military manufactures intensifies the decline of Russia’s creaking economy. And most importantly, Ukrainian strikes diminish the supply of military hardware and fuel for Russia’s occupation forces in Ukraine.
To further demonstrate Russia’s vulnerabilities, Ukraine’s armed forces have incorporated foreign fighters from nations seeking liberation from Moscow, some of which are organized as distinct national units. They include Georgian, Belarusian, and Chechen battalions, with other national liberationists planning to create their own military units.
The Freedom of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps have also recruited disaffected Russians willing to fight for Ukraine and against the Putin regime. Some units successfully penetrated the Russian Federation and temporarily seized several border towns last year.
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Ukraine is also positioning itself at the forefront of a developing movement to weaken Russia from within by supporting a host of national and regional groups seeking sovereignty and independence. In August 2023, Ukraine’s parliament established a Temporary Special Commission for Interaction with the Indigenous Peoples of Russia to develop state policy in interacting with national liberation movements inside the Russian Federation.
On Jan. 22, Ukrainian Unity Day, President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree in solidarity with Ukrainians in Russia, estimated at between 3 million to 6 million people. By promoting the collective rights of Ukrainians who have been subject to Russification and repression, Kyiv is asserting its determination to defeat Moscow and defend its nation.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. His recent book is Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture. His forthcoming book is Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Strategic Player. He has just returned from a trip to Kyiv.