Russian President Vladimir Putin’s determination to expand conventional military forces has raised the specter that Russia’s conventional forces might “overmatch” their NATO counterparts, according to Western officials.
“Their industrial capacity is, I mean — it’s vast. Their level of financial investment in industry, defense industry, is vast,” a Western military official said on condition of anonymity. “And I think that worries us in terms of overmatch.”
President Joe Biden and other Western powers rallied to provide billions of dollars’ worth of military equipment to Ukraine in the two years since Putin launched his campaign to overthrow Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Yet U.S. and European defense companies have been slow to increase the production of weapons systems necessary to repel Russian forces without reliance on Western nuclear weapons.
“Being a nuclear power, ultimately, is the deterrent, as part of NATO but we need to be in a position where we can demonstrably deter on a sliding scale of war-fighting efforts,” the Western military official said. “That means having a balanced force, not putting all our eggs in one basket … so that while we know that we, ultimately, could [use nuclear weapons], we never get to the point of having to risk a nuclear war.”
The imbalances that concern Western military strategists likewise have hampered Ukrainian defense efforts, raising new questions about NATO’s ability to deter Russia in the event of Ukraine’s defeat.
“A defeat for Ukraine would bring new resources to the victors and open the door for more ‘special military operations’ in Central and Eastern Europe,” Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky told a Prague-based media outlet. “The war in Ukraine is also our war. Our future is at stake.”
Putin claimed on Thursday that such foreboding statements are “utterly baseless,” but Western officials are conscious that senior Russian officials claimed to have “no plans or intentions to attack Ukraine” throughout the weeks leading to the February 24, 2022 onslaught.
“We are likely moving towards a further escalation of the major war that is already ongoing,” Estonian Defense Forces deputy commander Andrus Merilo, who will take over as the Baltic state’s chief military officer in July, told Estonian Public Broadcasting last week. “In this sense, we must not deceive ourselves and say that it will never happen. Rather, we should get used to the fact that of its coming to pass. The question is when, and on preparations on mitigating that when that moment comes.”
The war in Ukraine is also our war. Our future is at stake.
Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky
That perspective is no longer an eccentric view in NATO. Officials from countries such as Estonia, a small country that shares a border with Russia and has an acute memory of Soviet occupation, have been accustomed to having their anxieties downplayed by their larger allies to the West. Yet last month, British Defence Secretary Grant Shapps declared last month that this geopolitical context to be “a pre-war world,” and his American counterpart agreed that NATO’s Baltic allies could be the theater for such a conflict.
“If you are a Baltic state, you are really worried about whether you are next. They know Putin. They know what he is capable of,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Thursday during a congressional appearance. “And, frankly, if Ukraine falls, I really believe that NATO will be in a fight with Russia.”
The task of deterring or preparing for that scenario has been complicated by years of miscalculations that saw Western leaders scale back their investment in some of the weaponry, such as “air defense capability,” most necessary to repel a Russian land invasion.
“We have taken capability choices and capability risks, that we now feel uncomfortable with,” the Western military official said.
“We had not invested sufficiently in our industrial base, in our industrial strategy, and that is coming home to roost. And all of our dialogue with NATO, I think, is probably a reflection that we find ourselves in similar positions. … ‘And now’s the time to get real and make sure that we’re doing something about it. You know, how long have we got? We just need to get on [with it] and invest.’”
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In the meantime, Ukraine’s fight to repel Russia’s invasion has not only consumed Russian attention and resources, but it has provided Western planners with an opportunity to recalibrate their assessment of how much damage NATO would have to inflict on Russian forces for Moscow to admit defeat.
“To deter Russia, you need conventional capability that could eliminate the threat, not just cause him pain,” said Estonian Defense Forces Gen. Martin Herem, the Baltic ally’s outgoing defense chief. “The whole threat that comes to your territory, you must be able to eliminate it and as quickly as possible. And this means that we must develop conventional capability — artillery, air defense, infantry, anti-tank — with modern technology, and we need to invest in that.”