Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) announced his intention to step down from Senate Republican leadership Wednesday, and less than 24 hours later, the race to replace him has already begun.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) issued a statement Thursday morning asking his Republican colleagues to give him the opportunity to succeed McConnell, and he is not the only John expected to enter the race.
Sens. John Thune (R-SD) and John Barrasso (R-WY) are also expected to join the running, and it is possible there may be some other dark horse candidates as well.
As minority whip, Thune is nominally next in line, although Cornyn held that position for six years before him. Barrasso serves as the conference chairman, which is the leadership position directly below the whip.
I asked some current and former Republican senate aides to handicap the race to replace McConnell, and here is what some of them said.
“The three Johns, Cornyn, Thune, and Barrasso, are well-liked in the conference and experienced,” one former aide said. “But, they represent business as usual. A growing number of republican Senators are tired of the top-down management and understand that voters are sick of business as usual. The question is how many of them recognize the political winds have changed. If they don’t see it, they’ll face rebellion from their voters and many donors.”
“Thune is the heir apparent because he’s been doing McConnell’s job for the last year since McConnell’s fall,” another former aide said. “But Cornyn has been actively working the conference. Barrasso is seen as the most conservative of the three. [Sen. Tom] Cotton (R-AR) is a dark horse candidate. Frankly, the biggest issue all of them have, particularly Thune and Cornyn, is to demonstrate how they will be any different from Mitch McConnell. The conference has generationally and stylistically moved on from McConnell’s autocratic leadership style. There’s a lot of internal consternation over his signature trait of getting a minority of Republicans to vote with Democrats on every major priority. Running things the same way he did is not going to inspire or sell anyone. Whoever can present a new vision, one that is much more reflective of GOP voters and ideas from other senators, is going to be the most compelling.”
One current Senate aide predicted a non-John could enter the race from the conservative wing of the conference.
“I can think of ways that conservative members could use a candidate like Sen. Cotton to run as leverage to extract more concessions from an establishment candidate,” the current aide said.
It appears the three Johns already realize they will have to distance themselves from McConnell’s legacy if they are going to succeed him.
“I believe the Senate is broken,” Cornyn said in his statement announcing his candidacy. ” … We will improve communication, increase transparency, and ensure inclusion of every Member’s expertise and opinion. We will restore the important role of Senate committees and reestablish the regular appropriations process, rather than lurch from one crisis to another. And we will return power back to our members; there will be no more backroom deals or forced votes on bills without adequate time for review, debate, and amendment.”
That last promise, no backroom deals forced on members without time for debate and amendment, will be a key one.
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“The next Senate GOP leader must never hide from colleagues the text of a pre-negotiated, must-pass bill until moments before an artificial deadline (contrived by the leader) to coerce GOP senators into voting for that bill—with no real opportunity to read, debate, and amend it,” Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) posted to X Wednesday night.
It seems Cornyn is already listening to what conservative members want.