Democrats are taking a page out of their 2022 midterm elections playbook and campaigning against three GOP Senate candidates by accusing them of not having close enough ties to the states they are seeking to represent.
This strategy played off in the Pennsylvania Senate race in 2022 against Republican Mehmet Oz, who Democrats lambasted constantly for having a longtime home in New Jersey while running in the Keystone State. Now, Democrats are once again signaling that this will be a campaign message throughout the 2024 election, particularly as the party seeks to hold on to its vulnerable Senate majority.
Republican candidates in Wisconsin, Montana, and Pennsylvania are already facing questions about their residency and connection to the state. Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) is defending one of three vulnerable toss-up races, while the races of Sens. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Bob Casey (D-PA) are considered “lean Democratic.”
If Democrats can convince voters that the Republican candidate does not have strong enough ties to their respective state, it may help tip the balance in their favor and protect incumbents in what are sure to be some of the tightest races in 2024.
Wisconsin — Eric Hovde
Eric Hovde launched his campaign this week to unseat Baldwin. Though a Wisconsin native, he is facing questions about his ties to California, where he owns a $7 million mansion in Orange County and has been named one of the county’s most influential people. Hovde purchased a home in Madison in 2011 after living in Washington, D.C., for 24 years.
The purchase of his Madison home coincided with his first Senate run in 2012, when he lost in the Republican primary to former Gov. Tommy Thompson. Baldwin defeated Thompson that year, and she is seeking her third term as Wisconsin’s junior senator.
Hovde is the CEO of Sunwest Bank, which has locations in Arizona, California, Idaho, Florida, and Utah. However, most of Hovde’s business empire, including Hovde Properties, is located in Madison.
Baldwin’s campaign is already on the offensive, calling Hovde an “out-of-touch megamillionaire” minutes after his campaign website went live. Democratic groups are calling him a carpetbagger who moved out of his California home to run for Senate in his home state.
However, during his campaign launch, he pitched to voters about his great-grandparents, who settled in Wisconsin, and his grandfather’s founding of a business near Madison that is now run by Hovde’s family. His campaign has also pushed back against Baldwin and Democrats’ attacks, saying he is a “fourth generation Wisconsinite” and “Wisconsin through and through.”
Hovde will face an uphill battle to defeat Baldwin if he is selected as the Republican candidate, even with his multi-million dollar businesses. Baldwin has gained broad support from independents and voters outside of the Democratic strongholds in Madison and Milwaukee. She has raked in millions of dollars for her reelection bid and has extensive Senate coffers to boost her campaign, as well.
Montana — Tim Sheehy
Democrats have been funneling millions of dollars and putting extensive effort into campaigning for Tester’s reelection bid, as his seat is one of three Senate seats considered to be most vulnerable this election season.
They are campaigning heavily against Tim Sheehy, a Republican primary candidate and Minnesota native who has the support of the majority of the establishment Republicans, the GOP campaign arms, and former President Donald Trump. He is shaping up to be a formidable opponent, so much so that Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-UT) disbanded his Senate campaign less than a week after he launched it.
Democrats have nicknamed Sheehy “Transplant Tim,” hoping to peg him to voters as a newcomer to Montana, a state that often measures authenticity based on how long one’s family has lived there, per NBC News. The Montana Democratic Party also launched an ad last week framing Sheehy as an “out-of-state tech millionaire… playing cowboy.”
“In the end, I really don’t think it matters for me,” Tester, whose Montana dirt farm has been in his family for generations, told the outlet after Rosendale launched his campaign. “It’s either an out-of-stater that [Senate GOP Leader Mitch] McConnell’s picked or out-of-stater that McConnell hasn’t picked.”
Sheehy’s campaign is on the defensive, with spokespeople stating that he visited Montana as a child and on training missions as a former Navy SEAL in 2010 and 2011. After Sheehy and his wife left the military in 2014, they “chose to make Montana home to raise their family and start a business because it was a place consistent with their values,” a spokesperson told NBC News.
Pennsylvania — David McCormick
Pennsylvania Democrats are bringing their strategy against Oz back around to David McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO who lost in the primary against Oz in 2022. McCormick himself said that Oz lost because voters saw him as a New Jersey outsider, and now he is facing similar attacks for his residency in Connecticut.
McCormick, a Gulf War veteran, had frequently noted his ownership of a home in Pittsburgh and a family farm near Bloomsburg in 2023 ahead of his anticipated campaign launch. However, an Associated Press review of public records found that he still lives on Connecticut’s Gold Coast and rents a mansion along the Long Island Sound in Westport, Connecticut.
Democrats have ramped up their attacks on McCormick over his residency. When McCormick began a bus tour last weekend, Casey’s campaign sent a mobile billboard to one event advertising that he was “216 miles away” from Westport. The Pennsylvania Democratic Party also frequently circulates stories and details about his Long Island mansion, which includes a 1,500-bottle wine cellar, per the Associated Press.
McCormick is defending his home in Connecticut, pointing out that he has children from a previous marriage, and his youngest daughter is finishing high school there.
“I do go to Connecticut to see my daughter, and that’s a part of being a good dad, and I’m going to continue to do that,” McCormick said in an interview with Pennsylvania local outlet WJAC. “I rent a home there so I can do that when I’m there. And if there’s a political cost associated with that, so be it.”
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National campaign groups for Republicans are defending their candidates, pointing out they serve as a contrast to long-serving senators such as Casey and Tester.
“While Republicans have recruited a roster of political outsiders with experience in the military and private sector, Senate Democrats are running the same out of touch, career politicians who have spent decades in Washington making life worse for everyday Americans,” NRSC communications director Mike Berg said. “We’ll take that matchup every time.”