Russian forces are continuing to make gains in the Ukrainian city of Avdiivka, much of which has been destroyed by the very soldiers fighting over it, while U.S. officials have warned that this could be the first of many Ukrainian losses if Congress doesn’t pass a funding bill.
Russian troops are conducting a turning movement through the city with the intent of forcing Ukraine’s withdrawal, though their capture of the city would not be operationally significant for their overall war efforts, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank that analyzes the movements of the war in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s new commander in chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, announced recently that Ukraine would be reinforcing its troops in the city, bringing in the troops that defended Bakhmut, a city Ukraine defended for months before giving it up in one of the most brutal clashes of the war.
Syrskyi and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov visited command posts at the front near Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast this week, while the former said on Telegram, “The operational environment is extremely complex and stressful. The Russian occupiers continue to increase their efforts and have a numerical advantage in personnel. They do not count on losses and continue to use the tactics of ‘meat assaults.’”
White House national security spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Thursday that the situation in Avdiivka is “critical” and that the city “is at risk of falling into Russian control.”
For months, the Biden administration has sought congressional support for a new national security budget request that would include about $60 billion of military aid for Ukraine, but House Republicans have objected and then declined a version of the package that included concessions they sought regarding the U.S. southern border. The U.S. has not provided military aid to Ukraine since late December 2023.
“In very large part, this is happening because the Ukrainian forces on the ground are running out of artillery ammunition,” he noted. “Russia is sending wave after wave of conscript forces to attack Ukrainian positions. And because Congress has yet to pass the supplemental bill, we have not been able to provide Ukraine with the artillery shells that they desperately need to disrupt these Russian assaults.”
Kirby warned that the “cost of inaction by Congress is stark,” and added, “If House Republicans do not act soon, what is happening in Avdiivka right now could very well happen elsewhere along that front.”
A senior U.S. defense official reiterated that sentiment to reporters on Friday, saying, “We do see that Ukrainians are running short on critical supplies, particularly ammunition, and we see this as something that could be the harbinger of what is to come if we do not get this supplemental funding because without supplemental funding, not only can we not resupply those forces that are bravely trying to defend Avdiivka. We also will find many other locations along the forward line of troops that will be running low on supplies and critical ammunition.“
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The war is reaching its two-year mark in less than two weeks and Ukraine has largely fended off Russia’s advances, having recaptured about half of the territory Russia once occupied. Russia controlled 161,774 square kilometers — or 62,461 square miles — and that accounted for about 26.7% of Ukraine’s territory on March 23, 2022, at the height of its occupation, according to the ISW. The amount of Russian-occupied territory is down to 108,268 square kilometers, or 17.92% of Ukraine’s territory, as of Feb. 13, 2024.
The war has decimated much of eastern Ukraine and has resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of troops on both sides. Russia’s casualty count is about 315,000, according to the defense official, who also said Russia has “probably spent up to $211 billion in direct financial outlays to equip, deploy, maintain, and sustain Russian operations in Ukraine.”