The defense ministers of several NATO states, including Germany, Norway, and Poland, have stated that the West needs to prepare for war with Russia. Their warnings are intended to draw attention to three realities: that Europe can no longer depend on the United States, especially if there is a second Trump presidency; that Europe itself remains militarily unprepared; and that Ukraine conceding any territories to Russia will embolden Moscow to confront NATO directly.
Before the 2024 U.S. election campaign, most European officials ignored former President Donald Trump’s idea of making a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin over Ukraine. They also failed to take Trump’s threat to scale down U.S. involvement in NATO seriously. They calculated that saner voices would prevail in a second Trump administration, as they did in the first. However, the blockage of any military assistance to Ukraine by Trump loyalists in Congress is having a sobering effect among U.S. allies.
A growing number of European capitals are preparing contingency plans for drastically increasing military aid to Ukraine and preparing for an American withdrawal. One benefit of the Trump scare is greater European solidarity in ensuring assistance to Ukraine regardless of who is in the White House. This was demonstrated in dealing with the obstreperous government in Hungary, which was warned about losing its own European Union funds if it refused to agree to release urgently needed resources for Kyiv.
Nonetheless, European states do not have the available capacities to replace the weapons that Washington can supply to Ukraine. Boosting weapons production is a longer-term plan, while Kyiv has an immediate need to defend its territories. One creative idea is for Europe to buy U.S. weapons for Ukraine. European NATO can push for a multiyear purchase that would cost about 45 billion euros annually (or only 0.3% of its gross domestic product). Europe-funded contracts would profit U.S. industry, directly help Ukraine, and send a strong message to Moscow that Western support for Kyiv will continue regardless of who wins the U.S. elections.
In a worst-case longer-term scenario, even if the U.S. remained in NATO because of congressional buffers against withdrawal, Trump could refuse to invoke the North Atlantic Treaty’s Article 5 to help defend a country attacked by Russia. Without the American presence, Europe’s low equipment levels and limited deployment capabilities would become evident. After decades of military-industrial underinvestment, a major buildup would be necessary, as Europe’s militaries shrank from 3.4 million troops in 1989 to 1.3 million in 2022. It is uncertain how many countries would be willing to increase their defense budgets significantly, with at least 100 billion euros needed by 2025 to boost weapons production to deter or defeat a Russian challenge. This is assuming that Moscow itself will be capable of maintaining its war economy, given its declining revenues.
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A potential war between Russia and NATO could also develop differently than the war in Ukraine. Moscow may not aim for victory through conventional conflict but by testing NATO’s political resolve. It can measure the response to an initially limited bombing of a town or infrastructure facility along NATO’s eastern flank and escalate if the reaction proves weak. It could threaten to bomb other NATO cities or stage a nuclear strike if Europe retaliates. Moscow would calculate that even a limited victory over a NATO state could make the alliance defunct.
If Washington refused to intervene following a military attack on NATO territory, Moscow’s ambitions would escalate. The U.S. would then face a starker choice: whether to abandon its allies or be drawn into another European war. Such a scenario can, of course, be avoided if Ukraine is fully armed now to defeat the Russian military, especially as its forces have already demonstrated their capabilities.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. His recent book is Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture. His forthcoming book is Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Strategic Player.