After what has felt like months of gloomy news about stalled front lines, degrading support in Western capitals, and depleted ammunition, Ukraine had a decent week.
In Brussels, the European Union finally convinced Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to get out of the way of a $54 billion, multiyear financial support package to the Ukrainian government, which was passed with much fanfare on Thursday. In the waters of the Black Sea, the Russian navy was dealt another embarrassing setback when Ukrainian naval drones sank the Ivanovets, a Russian missile corvette based in Crimea. And after months of suspense, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) announced on Thursday that the national security supplemental package, which contains more than $60 billion in military support for Kyiv, will be put on the floor this week.
Yet all of this positive news is getting buried underneath the wet blanket that is the drama between Ukraine’s two most powerful officials, President Volodymyr Zelensky and Valery Zaluzhny, the country’s top general. Rumors of the two men disagreeing over tactics, strategy, and the overall direction of the war effort have persisted for months but came out in the open in November, when Zaluzhny sat down with the Economist and bluntly said the war was at a stalemate. The interview didn’t sit well with Zelensky and his political team in Kyiv, who quickly denounced the comments as false. Some even went so far as to accuse the general, in essence, of providing aid and comfort to the Russian enemy.
The spat has now reached its peak. Zaluzhny, who is highly respected by his troops, extremely popular with the Ukrainian public, and viewed as a legendary figure for his overall command of Kyiv’s defense during the first two months of the war, will now be searching for a new job — or at least soon. Zelensky reportedly pressed for his resignation and offered him an alternative post, but Zaluzhny declined. It’s only a matter of time before he leaves; whether or not it’s his choice is irrelevant at this point.
While it’s easy to be a Monday morning quarterback, this entire incident is as much about ego as it is about legitimate differences over policy. One of the biggest policy differences between the two men is over mobilization, or more accurately, whether another mobilization is necessary. Zaluzhny’s position on this is clear: If the Ukrainian army hopes to hold its current positions and conduct another counteroffensive against Russian-occupied territory at some point in the future, then the ranks need to be boosted by another 450,000-500,000 troops. From a purely military perspective, the recommendation makes sense because Russia has more of everything — more men, more missiles, more artillery shells, and more willingness to throw its soldiers into the meat grinder.
Zelensky, however, knows such an extensive mobilization would be politically unpopular, not to mention expensive. “The mobilization of an additional 450,000 to 500,000 people will cost Ukraine 500 billion hryvnia [€12 billion],” Zelensky said during his end-of-year press conference in late December, “and I would like to know where the money will come from.” The EU’s $54 billion financial aid package could perhaps cover some of the tab, but it’s not like Ukraine doesn’t have other needs on its docket. Zelensky is right to ask questions, just as Zaluzhny is right to offer his best military recommendation.
The problem is that neither man is managing these differences well — if at all. Both come across looking childish, even more so when hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian troops are facing massive Russian artillery strikes every moment of the day at the front.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
Zelensky looks like a petty politician, trying to pressure one of the highest-profile people on his team to leave for reasons that may not even have to do with military aspects of the campaign. (Polls show that the Ukrainian people trust Zaluzhny far more than they trust Zelensky.) Zaluzhny, meanwhile, looks a bit selfish for refusing to submit his recommendation and has reinforced the already prevailing mood in Zelensky’s circle that Ukraine’s top general isn’t a team player and could be a formidable political opponent whenever Ukraine starts holding elections again (the country is under martial law).
In the end, Zelensky will have to hold the bag. He’s the president, after all. And whether he likes it or not, occupying such an esteemed office means taking responsibility for decisions and owning up to any mistakes that may have been made. Those decisions right now don’t look great: fire your top commander and risk angering the troops who serve under him, or keep him in the job and look weak for backtracking.
Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.