BIG PICTURE: THE RACE TODAY. Yesterday we looked at a new poll on the Republican presidential race in the key state of South Carolina. (Short version: Donald Trump is 26 points ahead of Nikki Haley, 58% to 32%.) Now, a look at the national polls for the general election.
First, there’s a question of how to assess things. Should you focus on the Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump one-on-one polls? Or should you focus on three-way polls, Biden vs. Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.? Or should you focus on a five-way contest, Biden vs. Trump vs. RFK Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate? After all, if they’re all on the ballot, that, and not a clear Biden vs. Trump, is what voters will see. And the presence of the other candidates does make a difference in the support for Biden and Trump. On the other hand, not all those other candidates are going to be on the ballot in all the states. So for now, let’s just stick with the Biden vs. Trump matchup.
And then there is the Biden vs. Haley matchup. Haley is so far behind Trump in Republican polling that it doesn’t seem an entirely realistic exercise to put her against Biden in a general election matchup. But Haley has made what she says is her ability to defeat Biden a key part of her campaign appeal. She can beat Biden, she says, while Trump cannot. So for now, at least, the Biden vs. Haley matchup is worth looking at, too.
In the big picture, the general election race between Biden and Trump is extremely close. In the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Trump leads Biden by 1.8 percentage points, 46.6% to 44.8%. The six most recent polls in the average show: Trump +4, Biden +6, Trump +1, Trump +1, Biden +1, and Tie. That’s really close.
Haley is also leading Biden in a one-on-one matchup. The RealClearPolitics average has Haley ahead of Biden by 2.3 points, 42.3% to 40%. The six most recent polls in the average show: Haley +13, Biden +5, Haley +5, Haley +1, Haley +3, and Haley +8.
So Haley has a slight, one-half of a percentage point advantage over Trump when both are matched up with Biden in general election polls. One caution, though. These ratings might be affected by the relative familiarity of the two Republicans involved, Trump and Haley.
Every human being in the country knows who Trump is. When the recent CNN poll asked whether respondents had a “favorable opinion” or “unfavorable opinion” or had “never heard of” or had “no opinion” about Trump, literally zero people said they had never heard of Trump.
The story was quite different for Haley. In the CNN poll, 23% of respondents said they had never heard of her, while 19% said they had no opinion about her. That is 42% of respondents who seem completely unformed in their views on Haley. (By the way, an additional 32% had an unfavorable opinion of her, while just 25% said they had a favorable opinion.) So the public has a lot to learn about Nikki Haley.
Also, it should be noted that there is an element of unreality in including the Haley numbers. In the RealClearPolitics average of the Republican race, Trump leads Haley by 54 points, 72.7% to 18.7%. Trump has already won the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary by double digits. In the only recent South Carolina poll, he is ahead by 26 points. So why are we even considering the Haley-Biden numbers at all?
The answer is something this newsletter has discussed before. Many in the political world just cannot believe that Trump can roll to the nomination and then to the general election unscathed in the face of four indictments and a total of 91 felony counts. They think something has to give at some time. And then, the Republican Party might need another presidential candidate. Certainly, some of those people are trying very hard to make that happen.
Who knows? They might be right. In any event, if Trump were to win the South Carolina primary on Feb. 24, it is hard to see Haley going on for any reason other than to be the Republican Trump backup in the event the former president implodes.
So that is where things stand. The incumbent president is old, weak, and trailing two possible opponents, one under a bunch of indictments and the other not terribly well known. And many both in and out of politics are certain there are some big changes yet to come.
For a deeper dive into many of the topics covered in the Daily Memo, please listen to my podcast, The Byron York Show — available on Radio America and the Ricochet Audio Network and everywhere else podcasts can be found.