President Joe Biden is optimistic about his odds in Florida, former President Donald Trump‘s home state, even as Democrats have floundered there in recent elections.
Biden touted the urgency to win races up and down the ballot in November at a campaign reception on Tuesday at the Pelican Club in Jupiter, Florida. He also joked that the state had received a dose of “Trumpism,” in an apparent jab at his chief 2024 rival and other Florida Republicans, including Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL).
“In America, we leave nobody behind,” Biden said. “We believe everyone deserves just a fair shot. That’s all. And we give hate no safe harbor. We believe in America. And we know what’s at stake. We have to keep the White House. We have to keep the Senate. We have to win back the House and win up and down the ticket in local offices.
“Because here in Florida, you’ve had a real dose of ‘Trumpism,’” he added.
Biden said he thinks Florida can flip blue in November as long as his campaign works hard on get-out-the-vote efforts.
“But here in Florida, we have to organize, mobilize the vote,” Biden said. “I think we can win Florida. I think the Democrats can win in Florida.”
The president lost the Sunshine State to Trump in 2020 by about 3 percentage points, or 371,686 votes. The last time Florida went for a Democratic candidate in the presidential election was 2012 when then-President Barack Obama defeated Republican Mitt Romney by less than 1 point, or 74,309 votes.
Since Biden’s 2020 loss in the Sunshine State, the Florida Democratic Party has taken a bruising. In October 2021, the Florida Republican Party surpassed the Florida Democrats in registered voters for the first time in state history and now claims to have 800,000 more registered voters.
Democrats lost most key races in the 2022 elections, including a nearly 20-percentage-point loss in the gubernatorial race and a 16-point loss in the U.S. Senate race. The GOP won every statewide office and held on to supermajorities in both chambers of the state legislature.
Florida Democrats have had a few bright spots since the last presidential election, winning some special elections and flipping the Jacksonville mayor’s office, but even amid recent turmoil at the Florida GOP, the outlook for November does not appear bright.
The most recent presidential polls conducted in Florida, from late last year, show Biden far behind Trump in the Sunshine State. A Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll from December 2023 shows Trump leading Biden 45%-34%, while a Florida Atlantic University poll from November shows Trump leading Biden 49%-39%.
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Most election forecasters have Florida as favoring the GOP nominee in November. The Cook Political Report rates Florida as “likely Republican” — one rating away from “solid Republican.” CNN rates Florida as “lean Republican,” as does the Hill-Decision Desk HQ.
DeSantis, who ran an unsuccessful presidential bid before endorsing Trump, had one word for Biden after claiming he could flip Florida blue in November: “Nope.”