TRUMP KILLS BORDER DEAL: With the border security compromise hammered out over months of bipartisan negotiation in the Senate on life support, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) essentially pulled the plug yesterday while insisting he was not bowing to former President Donald Trump’s demands to kill the bill so he can campaign on the issue.
“That’s absurd,” Johnson answered when asked if he was acting to help Trump. “We have only a tiny, as you know, razor-thin — actually a one-vote majority right now, in the House. Our majority is small. We only have it in one chamber, but we’re trying to use every ounce of leverage that we have to make sure that this issue is addressed.”
“I have talked to the former President Trump about this issue at length, and he understands that. He understands that we have a responsibility to do here,” Johnson said. But after months of insisting that the crisis at the border required major reforms outlined in a House bill passed last year, now the argument is that no legislation is required to address the problem.
“President Trump took executive actions. He used his executive authority to get that system under control. President Biden came in, reflexively, and did exactly the opposite,” Johnson said, citing what he said were 64 Biden orders affecting the border. “At least half of those, more than half, could be immediately reversed, at the stroke of a pen. And Joe Biden refuses to do it. And it is outrageous to us.”
“I’ve done all I can do,” Biden said yesterday. “Just give me the power. I’ve asked from the very day I got into office: Give me the Border Patrol. Give me the people, give me the people, the judges. Give me the people who can stop this and make it work right.”
“Congressman Troy Nehls — he is a Texas Republican who is very close to Donald Trump — told me that Congress doesn’t need to ‘do a damn thing’ to address the border,’” CNN congressional reporter Melanie Zanona said last night. “He also said they shouldn’t do anything to help Biden’s poll numbers.”
WHAT ABOUT UKRAINE? Johnson has been insisting President Joe Biden’s $60 billion legislation of military and economic assistance was contingent on first addressing the border crisis. Now that he’s willing to wait to see if Trump regains the White House, the prospects for Ukraine aid are even more uncertain.
Senate Republican leaders met behind closed doors last night to debate whether to proceed with the compromise negotiated by Sen. James Lankford (R-OK), the text of which has not been released, or simply shelve the bill and try to push for a stand-alone measure to fund Ukraine.
Earlier this week, Lankford, one of the most conservative members of Congress, expressed his frustration with the refusal of House Republicans even to read the text of the compromise bill before killing it at the behest of Trump.
“It is interesting. Republicans four months ago would not give funding for Ukraine, for Israel, and for our southern border because we demanded changes in policy. So we actually locked arms together and said, ‘We’re not going to give you money for this. We want a change in law,’” he said. “And now it’s interesting, a few months later, when we’re finally getting to the end, they’re like, ‘Oh, just kidding. I actually don’t want a change in law because it’s a presidential election year.’”
LANKFORD: ‘BILL FOCUSES ON GETTING US TO ZERO’: Lankford has been frustrated that much of the opposition to the compromise in the House is based on what he says is misinformation from members who haven’t seen the final text of the bill.
“It seems the new authority to shut down the border would kick in only after as many as 5,000 illegal crossings happen each day. Why? Why would we do that?” Johnson said yesterday. “Illegal immigration is illegal. It is against the law. Why would you tolerate 5,000 a day before you sought to suddenly enforce the law? That would be surrender. The goal should be zero illegal crossings a day, not 5,000.”
“It would be absolutely absurd for me to agree to 5,000 people a day,” Lankford has responded. “This bill focuses on getting us to zero illegal crossings a day.”
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HAPPY JAN. 31: Happy last day of “Dry January” to those who celebrate at midnight tonight!
HAPPENING TODAY: NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg delivers remarks and takes questions at the Heritage Foundation as he makes the case for the “needs for increased and sustained defense spending across the NATO alliance, more balanced burden-sharing, and the ramping up of defense production to rise to the challenges of this pivotal moment.”
The 10 a.m. event comes as Stoltenberg is in Washington to mark the 75th anniversary of the trans-Atlantic alliance.
ZELENSKY TO SACK ZALUZHNY: For days there have been rumors that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was planning to fire his top wartime commander, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, all of which were denied by Zelensky’s office.
But the Washington Post reported this morning that on Monday, in a private conversation, Zelensky told Zaluzhny that “Ukrainians have tired of war and the country’s international backers have also slowed military assistance, so perhaps a new commander would rejuvenate the situation.”
“Zaluzhny remains in his post for now,” the Washington Post reported, “but a formal presidential decree is expected to confirm his ousting.”
Zaluzhny was in charge of the much-anticipated summer counteroffensive of 2023 that failed to achieve any significant territorial gains, and Zaluzhny was criticized in some quarters for rejecting U.S. military advice to concentrate all his forces to mount a breakthrough of Russian defenses at a single point of attack.
There have been tensions between Zelensky and his top general for months. The latest point of contention is Zaluzhny’s demand for a massive mobilization of reinforcements to carry Ukraine through another year of war.
AWAITING BIDEN’S RESPONSE: President Joe Biden says he’s signed off on a response to the attack on U.S. troops in Jordan that killed three U.S. Army Reserve soldiers and wounded more than 40 others.
“Have you made a decision on how you’ll respond to the attacks?” Biden was asked as he prepared to board Marine One.
“Yes,” he replied.
“Do you hold Iran responsible for the death of those three Americans?” a reporter asked.
“I do hold them responsible in the sense that they’re supplying the weapons to the people who did it,” Biden said.
BIDEN SETTLES ON RESPONSE TO DEADLY DRONE STRIKE IN JORDAN
WILL IRAN BE TARGETED? Iran is threatening it will “decisively respond” to any U.S. attack on its territory, and Biden and his various spokespersons have said repeatedly the U.S. does not seek a wider war with Iran.
But that doesn’t mean strikes have to be limited by Iranian-backed proxy forces, argued Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL), a former Green Beret. “Hitting back at the proxies has not been effective and will not be effective in terms of deterrence,” Waltz said on Fox News. “We need to hit Iranian assets themselves.”
“That doesn’t mean send the Marines into Tehran. That doesn’t even have to be inside of Iran,” Waltz said. “That can be Iranian operatives that are all over the Middle East. … Or that could be things like the command-and-control nodes that Iran is using to communicate with its proxies, or even the production facilities for these drones that they’re not only giving to the militias in Iraq, that they’re sending to the Houthis and they’re sending to the Russians to attack Ukraine.”
“They don’t care if you kill their proxy fighters. They don’t care if you destroy their muscles. What do they care if you take out their money or their leadership? That’s how Iran thinks,” GOP presidential hopeful Nikki Haley said on CBS.
“Remember [Gen. Qassem] Soleimani? When we assassinated Soleimani, he wasn’t in Iran. They move around,” Haley said. “It’s just surgical. You go and you find a couple of them that are making these decisions. It leaves them flat-footed.”
US TROOPS ATTACKED THREE TIMES SINCE DEADLY STRIKE: PENTAGON
ACTIONS SPEAK LOUDER: In what appeared to be a sudden change of tactics, the Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah announced it would suspend all its military operations against U.S. troops in the region, which it said was to avoid “embarrassment” to the Iraqi government, according to Reuters.
Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder was unimpressed. “We’ve seen those reports,” Ryder told reporters at a Pentagon briefing. “I don’t have a specific comment to provide, other than actions speak louder than words.”
The group’s statement indicated Iran had pressured the group to stop the attacks on U.S. troops and suggested it does not take orders from Tehran.
BIDEN TO ATTEND DOVER CEREMONY: Biden plans to attend the dignified transfer ceremony as the bodies of the three fallen soldiers killed in the Jordan attack are returned to U.S. soil Friday at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware.
The White House said Biden spokes to the families of the soldiers before making a decision.
“The president had an opportunity this morning to speak with the family members of the three service members who were tragically killed in this attack. He was grateful for their time,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Air Force One. “In that conversation, he also gauged their feelings about him going to the dignified transfer at Dover on Friday. All of them supported his presence there. And so, the president will be going to the dignified transfer on Friday.”
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THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Biden settles on response to deadly drone strike in Jordan
Washington Examiner: US troops attacked three times since deadly strike: Pentagon
Washington Examiner: Foreign policy has turned into Biden’s albatross
Washington Examiner: How the US can thread the deterrence-escalation needle on Iran
Washington Examiner: ‘Evil in the world’: Mike Pompeo warns of linked authoritarian threats
Washington Examiner: Dramatic footage captures disguised Israeli troops storming West Bank hospital and killing terrorists
Washington Examiner: Biden speaks to families of troops killed in Jordan, to attend dignified transfer
Washington Examiner: UK floats consideration of Palestinian state, as ceasefire talks continue
Washington Examiner: House panel advances Mayorkas articles of impeachment
Washington Examiner: Rick Scott accuses McConnell of ‘undermining’ GOP over Senate border deal
Washington Examiner: Biden should focus more on ‘being smarter than looking tougher’ on border, California senator says
Washington Examiner: As border crossings go down in El Paso, Denver sees immigrant arrivals decrease
Washington Examiner: Biden DOJ asks Supreme Court to allow race-based admissions at West Point
Washington Examiner: ‘Evil in the world’: Mike Pompeo warns of linked authoritarian threats
Wall Street Journal: Iran Is Facing Moment Of Truth
AP: US Navy destroyer shoots down a Houthi-claimed missile in the Red Sea
Reuters: Hamas Official Says It Has Received New Proposal For Three-Stage Truce
Politico: New US-Made Longer-Range Bomb Expected to Arrive as Soon as Jan. 31 in Ukraine
New York Times: C.I.A. Chief Asserts War Is Weakening Putin’s Power
Reuters: Taiwan Angered At ‘Unilateral’ China Change To Taiwan Strait Flight Path
CNN: Xi Promised Biden China Wouldn’t Interfere In 2024 Election
The War Zone: MQ-20 Avenger Tests Previously Unseen Air-Launched Effects Drone
AP: Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan gets 14-year prison sentence in third conviction
Stars and Stripes: F-16 Crashes Off South Korea After ‘In-Flight Emergency,’ Air Force Says
Air & Space Forces Magazine: New Report: Why the US Should Invest More in Quantum Now
Defense News: Boeing Expects Grey Wolf Helicopter Deliveries to Air Force This Year
Defense One: USAF Tried an Electric Plane. Now It Wants to Buy
Air & Space Forces Magazine: At Barksdale, B-52 Crews Are in High Demand—And Looking Forward to Upgrades
Space News: Satellite-Services Industry Awaits Critical Demand Signal from US Military
Breaking Defense: Space Force Reexamining Acquisition Strategy for Secure Narrow-Band Communications
Air & Space Forces Magazine: First ‘Bamboo Eagle’ Exercise Builds on Red Flag, Adds Multi-Domain Elements
The Guardian: Ex-US Air Force Pilot Claims He May Have Located Lost Amelia Earhart Plane
Military.com: As The Marine Corps Says Goodbye To Decades-Old Jet, Its Maintainers Hit The Fleet For The Last Time
Air & Space Forces Magazine: ‘Masters of the Air’ Nails Many Details, Misses Context
Forbes: Opinion: How Submarine-Launched Systems Can Overwhelm Chinese Warships In The Taiwan Strait
THE CALENDAR:
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 31
8 a.m. 5000 Seminary Road, Alexandria, Virginia — Potomac Officers Club annual Defense Research and Development Summit, with Heidi Shyu, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering; Brig. Gen. John Cushing, commanding general of Army Combat Capabilities Development Command; and Jay Dryer, director of the Defense Department’s Strategic Capabilities Office https://potomacofficersclub.com/events
10 a.m. — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “Senior Enlisted Leaders on Quality of Life issues, with testimony from Sgt. Maj. Troy Black, senior enlisted adviser to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Army Sgt. Maj. Michael Weimer; Navy Master Chief Petty Officer James Honea; Marine Corps Sgt. Maj. Carlos Ruiz; Air Force Chief Master Sgt. JoAnne Bass; and Space Force Chief Master Sgt. John Bentivegna https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/quality-life-hearing
10 a.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Raising AUKUS (Australia, UK, U.S.) Pillar Two: Integrating Autonomous Systems into the ADF (Australian Defense Force),” with Brig. James Davis, director general of future land warfare, Australian Army; Capt. Adam Allica, director general of warfare innovation, Royal Australian Navy; Cmdr. Ross Bender, director general of air combat capability, Royal Australian Air Force; and Emily Hilder, interim head of the Australian Defense Department’s Advanced Strategic Capabilities Accelerator https://www.hudson.org/events/raising-aukus-pillar-two
10 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “Learned Indifference: How Russians Have Adapted to War,” with Denis Volkov, director of the Levada Center in Moscow; Andrei Kolesnikov, senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center; and Valerie Hopkins, international correspondent at the New York Times https://carnegieendowment.org/2024/01/31/learned-indifference
10:30 a.m. 208 Massachusetts Ave. NE — The Heritage Foundation hosts NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg for a speech on “the state of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization,” followed by a Q&A session https://www9.heritage.org
11 a.m. 390 Cannon — House select committee on the Chinese Communist Party hearing: “The CCP Cyber Threat to the American Homeland and National Security,” with testimony from Gen. Paul Nakasone, commander, U.S. Cyber Command; Jen Easterly, director, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency; Christopher Wray, director, FBI; Harry Coker, director, Office of the National Cyber Director https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/committee-activity/hearings
2 p.m. 2200 Rayburn — House Foreign Affairs Oversight and Accountability Subcommittee hearing: “Roundtable: Taliban Reprisals,” with testimony from Amy Marden of the Moral Compass Federation; Andy Sullivan of No One Left Behind; Thomas Kasza of the 1208 Foundation; Justin Sapp of Badger Six; Michael Cizmar of Rafiq Friends of Afghanistan; Elizabeth Lynn of Operation Recovery; Joe Maida IV of TransNexus Technologies; and Sanjar Sohail of 8AM Media http://foreignaffairs.house.gov
2 p.m. 999 Ninth St. NW — Exchange Monitor annual Nuclear Deterrence Summit through Feb. 2, with Energy Undersecretary for Nuclear Security Jill Hruby, administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration, and Thomas Summers, vice chairman of the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board https://www.exchangemonitor.com/go/nuclear-deterrence-summit
2 p.m. 1334 Longworth — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe hearing: “Eyewitness Accounts: Ukrainian Children and Adult Civilians Abducted by Russia,” with Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova; Pia Kauma, president of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly; Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets; Ukrainian Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin (via video recording); Mykola Kuleba, director of Save Ukraine; and Rostislav, Denys, and Ksenia, children forcibly removed from Ukraine. RSVP: [email protected]
2:30 p.m. 419 Dirksen — Senate Foreign Relations Europe and Regional Security Cooperation Subcommittee hearing: “The North Atlantic Treaty Organization at 75: Reflecting on Past Successes and Planning for the Future,” with testimony from retired Army Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute, former U.S. permanent representative to NATO, Washington, D.C.; Luke Coffey, senior fellow of national security and defense, Hudson Institute, Washington, D.C.; and Tara Varma, foreign policy fellow, Brookings Institute Center on the U.S. and Europe http://foreign.senate.gov
4 p.m. 1200 South Hayes St., Arlington, Virginia — Rand Corporation discussion: “Women, Peace, and Security in Action: Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy and National Security,” with Erin Cooper, acting director of international humanitarian policy, Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy; Cailin Crockett, senior adviser, White House Gender Policy Council; and Sharon Feist, command gender adviser at Indo-Pacific Command https://www.rand.org/events/2024/01/women-peace-security.html
5:30 p.m. 30 Madison Ave. New York, New York — Common Good in-person and virtual discussion: “Promise and Perils: National Defense in the Age of AI,” with Paul Scharre, executive vice president and director of studies, Center for a New American Security and author of Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence https://www.thecommongoodus.org/upcoming-events/national-security
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 1
8:15 a.m. 999 Ninth St. NW — Exchange Monitor annual Nuclear Deterrence Summit through Feb 2., with Marvin Adams, deputy administrator for defense programs at the National Nuclear Security Administration; Corey Hinderstein, deputy administrator for defense nuclear nonproliferation at the National Nuclear Security Administration; and Mallory Stewart, assistant secretary of state for arms control, deterrence, and stability https://www.exchangemonitor.com/go/nuclear-deterrence-summit
9:30 a.m. 216 Hart — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing to consider the nomination of Adm. Samuel J. Paparo Jr. to be commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
10 a.m. — Wilson Center’s Global Europe Program virtual discussion: “Ukraine’s Accession to the EU: Next Steps,” with Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze, member of the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada, and Mariana Budjeryn, senior research associate at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Project on Managing the Atom https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/ukraines-accession-eu-next-steps
12 p.m. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual forum: “Countering the Houthi Threat to Shipping: Regional Implications and U.S. Policy,” with Simon Henderson, WINEP fellow; Michael Knights; WINEP fellow; and Noam Raydan, WINEP senior fellow https://washingtoninstitute-org.zoom.us/webinar/register
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 2
8:15 a.m. 999 Ninth St. NW — Exchange Monitor annual Nuclear Deterrence Summit, with Air Force Gen. Anthony Cotton, commander of U.S. Strategic Command, and Madelyn Creedon, former principal deputy administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration https://www.exchangemonitor.com/go/nuclear-deterrence-summit
10 a.m Joint Base Anacostia-Bolling — Change of Directorship Ceremony in which Air Force Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse will take over as Defense Intelligence Agency director from the retiring Army Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier. Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks presides. https://www.defense.gov
12:30 — Atlantic Council virtual discussion on a new report: “Russia Tomorrow: Navigating a New Paradigm,” with Yevgenia Albats, Harvard University fellow; Casey Michel, director of the Human Rights Foundation’s Combating Kleptocracy Program; Angela Stent, senior adviser at Georgetown University’s Center for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies; and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/five-scenarios-for-russias-future