What is next in the Russia-Ukraine war?
Brady Knox
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Ten months after Russia launched the bloodiest war in Europe since World War II, the battle has stagnated.
Initial victories following President Vladimir Putin’s decision to launch a war in Ukraine on Feb. 24 have given way to Russian setbacks, retreats, and defeats.
Both sides are doubtless giving way to the tempting incentives to undercount their own casualties and exaggerate those of the enemy. In November, Gen. Mark Milley estimated that both sides probably had 100,000 casualties in total. And the total amount of aid that the United States has given to Ukraine is nearing $100 billion.
Wartime predictions for 2023 are difficult. But among a plethora of uncertainties about the coming year, five big questions stick out.
1. When and where will Russia launch its next offensive?
While the beginning of the war was characterized by a Russian blitzkrieg all across the front, the Russian army hasn’t launched a major offensive since the summer, when it seized Luhansk. A limited offensive has been underway in the Donbas city of Bakhmut for months, but most of Russia’s forces are on defense elsewhere. Analysts almost unanimously believe this will change in 2023.
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Gen. Valeri Zaluzhny, the commander in chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, said in a Dec. 15 interview that he believes the war will renew itself in earnest in early 2023, and he has “no doubt they will have another go at Kyiv.”
There are five realistic axes of assault: south from Belarus toward Kyiv, south from Belgorod into Kharkiv, north from Zaporizhzhia to cut off the Donbas region, west from Donetsk to take the whole Donbas, or west from Kherson to cut off Ukraine from the sea and reach the Russian-backed enclave of Transnistria, as Moldovan intelligence believes. All seem to agree that the offensive will occur sometime early in 2023.
The most unlikely path is west from Kherson because Russia abandoned its bridgehead there last month. A new assault on Kyiv is likely. Western intelligence has documented many thousands of new troops and armored groups gathering in Belarus. But the troop movements could be a feint to draw Ukrainian troops away from the real targets in the east. The White House says it has seen “no indication” of Russian plans for a renewed push on Kyiv, al Jazeera reported.
2. Can Russia weather the economic pain of sanctions?
One of the greatest surprises of 2022 was Russia’s ability to withstand Western economic sanctions. It took a Herculean effort by Putin’s technocrats, as reported by the Financial Times, but Russia ended 2022 weathering whatever the West threw at it.
But can this continue in 2023? A December report from the bipartisan Congressional Research Service is ambiguous: In order to thrive despite the sanctions, Russia will need success not only in what it can control but also in what it cannot. Primarily, the question is whether Russia will be able to trade with countries outside the sanctions regime.
Some positive trends may ease the Kremlin’s anxieties, however. An October report from the International Monetary Fund estimated that Russia’s rising inflation will prove to be temporary and that integration into non-Western markets will result in a rebound in imports and economic growth in 2023.
3. Will Russia resort to nuclear weapons?
The West has feared throughout that Putin might resort to the use of nuclear weapons. There has been a constant calibration of whether Russia might strike back with tactical nuclear weapons to reverse its battlefield misfortunes. Russian doctrine allows for such a move, according to national security commentator and retired U.S. Col. Gilberto Villahermosa, writing for Strategy and Tactics magazine.
But the possibility of such a retaliatory strike is probably slight. Putin recently promised Russia wouldn’t use nuclear weapons, and although he is no stranger to breaking his word, he knows he could risk a domestic backlash if he launches tactical nukes against “little Russians.” There are also other ways for Russia to escalate the war without using nuclear weapons.
4. Will the two sides begin peace talks?
While peace negotiations are possible in 2023, they are unlikely and would probably get nowhere. The two sides have mutually exclusive preconditions: Zelensky has repeatedly said Ukraine will negotiate only if Russia agrees to leave the Donbas and Crimea, which the Kremlin considers to be integral parts of Russia. Russia, in turn, has demanded recognition of its annexed territories, something Ukraine has repeatedly signaled it will never agree to.
When Putin recently said he was open to negotiations, it was probably a gesture to win support from non-Western countries.
Putin’s nationalist and hard-line supporters might abandon him if he showed signs of weakness. If Putin abandoned his newly annexed territories in Ukraine, he would probably face a coup or assassination attempt from more extreme elements in Russia.
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5. Can Ukraine win the war?
Ukrainian victory, once thought an impossibility, is now thought to be even likely, according to some Western analysts. But Putin remains as popular as ever at home, and a popular revolt is nowhere in sight, so he faces scant domestic pressure to give up.
Additionally, Ukraine’s ability to obtain the West’s most advanced technology is no guarantee of victory. Perhaps Ukraine’s best chance is to change its definition of victory. If it includes the retaking of Crimea, then victory is most likely beyond Ukrainian reach unless the Russian state collapses. Something short of that might be achieved on the battlefield in the coming year.