Iran and Pakistan are fuming at each other over civilian deaths in either country, and China is most worried about what this means for its military and economic ties to both.
Stemming from Middle Eastern tensions brought about by the Iranian-backed Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7 of last year, Iran has personally fired missiles over national borders into neighboring countries including Pakistan, who it hit last Tuesday. Tehran claimed it was striking pro-Israeli insurgents, but Islamabad rebuked that claim and condemned the attack, resulting in the deaths of two children.
Pakistan retaliated with a missile strike of its own that killed ten people in Iran. Islamabad also claimed to have been aiming for an insurgency group, but Iran likewise rebuked and condemned the strike. Now both nations are at risk of increased violent conflict across their borders, threatening to further destabilize the Middle East.
China has stepped in to mediate this conflict and nip it in the bud before it gets any worse. Iran and Pakistan have maintained relatively warm relations over the past several decades, and China has used this for its own benefit. Beijing has a large investment in those nations for their involvements in its grander economic initiatives.
China and Iran have had an increasingly deep relationship as American influence in the Middle East and Asia has gradually declined over the past few decades. China’s status as a great power has protected Iran from heavier international criticism and economic punishment in exchange for access to its immense oil reserves. China assists Iran in technological development so that it can serve as a giant buffer state in the middle east and a source of tension and distraction for NATO from its own machinations.
Iran also supports the development of Chinese infrastructure and influence across its lands as part of China’s broader Belt and Road Initiative, its international geopolitical plan to conduct infrastructure projects as far as it can amongst the developing countries across the continents of Asia and Africa to spread its influence and further assert dominance on the global stage.
Pakistan is central to Chinese economic control over the Asian continent, particularly among the Middle East and Central Asia. Because Pakistan serves as China’s direct eastern neighbor, it is geographically China’s direct link to both regions. It too is a key participant in the Belt and Road Initiative, arguably more so than Iran, and it serves as China’s first link in the chain across the Asian continent.
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Pakistan serves as a potential buffer for China against India, along with the Himalayan Mountains. China’s relations with India are not of particular concern at the moment, but India tends to fluctuate between adherence to the western and eastern powers depending on the circumstances. The Pakistani military has China to thank for most of its firepower and technological developments.
Due to the recent missile strikes and the sectarian differences between Iran and Pakistan, their tension is at its peak. China has spent many decades and many trillions organizing its anti-American house of cards, and two of its most important neighbors going to war has the potential to throw a large wrench into its grand plan.