Only 110,000, or roughly 15%, of registered Republicans in Iowa voted in Monday’s caucuses compared to the 187,000 Republicans who voted in 2016. Perhaps the extreme cold is the main factor that drove down turnout, or the fact that former President Donald Trump had such a commanding lead in the polls. Some conservative strategists are concerned that such low numbers in Iowa could be indicative of a wider enthusiasm problem on the Right heading into the general election, but the answer may be simpler and further-reaching.
Assuming that a Trump-Biden rematch is a foregone conclusion — considering the age of both candidates, nothing is certain — it will be the first time since the 1892 election between former President Grover Cleveland and incumbent Benjamin Harrison that a former president will challenge the man who beat him in the previous cycle. Trump’s appeal in 2016 was as a political outsider leading a brand new movement, fresh off of a successful campaign to take over the Republican Party. Biden’s appeal in 2020 was akin to Warren G. Harding’s call for a “return to normalcy” in 1920. It is no surprise that both pitches were effective considering the political landscapes at the time, but running back the same message in 2024 makes no sense for either campaign.
Trump’s “only I can fix America” pitch is a tough sell considering he was president for four years and did not, in fact, fix America. The former president failed to build a wall on the southern border and continued the amnesty policies of his predecessors, even calling supporters “losers” for pointing out that Mexico did not pay for a wall, a promise repeated throughout his campaign and presidency. Trump failed to end any of the wars in the Middle East, was terrible on guns, threw the pro-life movement under the bus after losses in the midterm elections, and refuses to take any blame for the economic destruction caused by his decision to hand his authority over to Dr. Anthony Fauci.
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Biden pledged to deliver normalcy and delivered anything but. On foreign policy, the president orchestrated the botched Afghanistan withdrawal and has sent well north of $100 billion in aid to Ukraine in what turned out to be a quagmire with no end in sight. Biden turned an open border into a full-blown crisis and poured gasoline on an economy already dealing with massive inflation. Since the president can’t run on a strong economy or victories abroad, he is going back to the “Trump is a fascist” line. That might work on the type of Democrat who is currently rallying in support of terrorists in major cities, but it is difficult to convince voters that your opponent is Hitler when your opponent occupied the White House for a full term without becoming Hitler.
Trump and Biden will each have a loyal base of supporters who will excuse their leader’s failures and broken promises, but it’s hard to imagine that the enthusiasm for either candidate more broadly will come anywhere close to what it was in 2020. If you’re the type of terminally online Laura Loomer or Krassenstein brothers fan, you may find the 45th or 46th president’s pitch compelling, but a large percentage of people see two elderly men who have failed their supporters at every turn. It will come down to turnout, and both sides have plenty of reasons to stay home.
Brady Leonard (@bradyleonard) is a musician, political strategist, and host of The No Gimmicks Podcast.