The Iowa caucus will finally begin the 2024 election cycle. While the results for tonight may be up in the air, one thing is almost certain: Nikki Haley does not have a real path to the GOP nomination.
The final Des Moines Register-NBC News-Mediacom Iowa poll paints a rosy picture for Haley with its top-line result. Haley is at 20%, a 4-point rise since December, above Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) at 16%. Combine that with Haley within striking distance of former President Donald Trump in New Hampshire, and you could assume that Haley is not only the leading alternative to Trump but a real contender to win the nomination.
Look just below the surface, though, and you will see that is not the case. That same poll found that 43% of Haley’s GOP supporters in Iowa would back President Joe Biden over Trump in a hypothetical rematch, compared to just 23% who would back Trump. That’s because not all of Haley’s GOP supporters are Republicans at all: In fact, half of Haley’s supporters in the poll identify as independents or Democrats.
On top of that, her unfavorable rating went up 15 points, and her favorable rating dropped 11 points to below 50%. While 88% of Trump supporters and 62% of DeSantis supporters are extremely or very enthusiastic about their candidates, just 39% of Haley’s are enthusiastic about her.
There just isn’t a true winning scenario for Haley under the circumstances of this primary. Trump is the popular (among Republicans) former president who is polling above 60% nationally among GOP voters. If DeSantis were to drop out and all of his voters flocked to Haley (which isn’t likely), Haley would still be just under 40 points behind Trump head to head.
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And, in the other unlikely scenario where Trump drops out, nearly half of his voters would immediately flock to DeSantis, with the rest up in the air. DeSantis is more popular among GOP voters, including Trump supporters. Haley’s numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire are buoyed by independents and Democrats, which may bode well for her if she ever gets to a general election but isn’t going to carry her through a Republican primary, especially when the other two leading candidates are incredibly popular among Republicans.
The likely outcomes of this primary are that Trump coasts to win as the polls indicate — or DeSantis peels off and wins over GOP voters who are on the fence between him and Trump once those voters are forced to give their final answer. There has not been any indication that Haley can seriously challenge those two possibilities and make a real run herself, no matter how strong her Democratic-supplemented numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire seem.