SIOUX CITY, Iowa — It actually feels relatively nice at only 3 degrees below zero, the warmest temperature Iowa has seen in a few days. The snow has stopped falling, the wind has died down, and the sun is out. But still, Monday night’s Iowa caucuses will be the coldest on record, and the foot or so of snow last week means plenty of people are homebound — plowed into their driveway or too cold to walk.
Throw in former President Donald Trump’s massive lead in the latest polls, and these will likely be the least-attended caucuses in history. It’s impossible to predict with certainty, but it seems likely that Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) will benefit the most from the temperatures, while former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley will suffer the most.
Trump leads in the latest Des Moines Register poll with 48%, while Haley posted 20% and DeSantis 16%. The bad weather is likely to push DeSantis into second place but likely won’t shrink Trump’s lead over the field by too much.
A seeming point of additional strength for Trump is that his supporters have their minds more made up. Among likely caucusgoers leaning toward Trump, 82% say their mind is made up, while only about 65% of DeSantis and Haley supporters say their vote is set in stone.
But given the horrible weather, this may, in fact, be bad news for Trump. At every Iowa caucus I have covered since the Bush era, Republican and Democratic, a significant minority show up undecided or not fully settled. These undecided caucusgoers are the most dedicated, the ones least likely to skip, regardless of the weather.
That’s because many Iowa voters simply love the caucuses. Brenda and Bob Krivanek are great examples — they’ve caucused as Republicans and Democrats and showed up when their preferred candidate had no chance. Republican caucuses typically begin with volunteer speakers giving one-minute speeches for each candidate. Often, neighbors show up to see who else is supporting whom.
Some portion of the 100%-Trumpers simply won’t show up, and many who would have won’t show up in this weather. “I’m a Trumper,” Bill says. But he’s not going to caucus this year. “Last time, I had to walk three blocks, and the weather wasn’t nearly this bad. I don’t think Trump has to worry.”
(I should note that Bill is wearing a Hawaiian shirt and shorts and informs me, “I haven’t worn pants, except to church, in two years.”)
In reported enthusiasm, though, the ranking goes Trump first, DeSantis second, and Haley last.
Of Trump supporters, 49% say they are extremely enthusiastic about him, while only 11% say they are only mildly enthusiastic. For DeSantis, 23% say they are extremely enthusiastic, while only 9% of Haley supporters say as much. About 60% of Haley’s supporters are mildly enthusiastic or worse.
That’s because Haley’s supporters include disaffected Democrats and independents or simply anti-Trump voters. These are people who have chosen Haley as the non-Trump or the most likely to beat Biden. Given Trump’s massive poll lead, it might be harder for them to turn out.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
When asked if Iowans will definitely or just probably attend, DeSantis wins again — 62% of his supporters say definitely compared to 56% of Trump voters and 51% of Haley voters. Just this data point is enough to see that DeSantis has a very good chance of edging past Haley.
Some caveats to the prediction of radically low turnout: The weather really has improved over the past few days, and the interstates and local roads in the cities are all drivable. Also, there’s been so little going on that lots of Iowans might caucus just to get out of the house.