The Iowa caucuses are the first on the presidential Republican primary calendar, but the winner of this race does not always end up faring well in nominating contests in subsequent states.
Donald Trump has a large polling lead over fellow GOP candidates Nikki Haley and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) going into Monday’s caucuses, but history indicates that may not be a good omen for the former president. Here is a look at how winners of the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses have fared in the rest of the primaries.
2016: Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)
Cruz defeated a crowded Republican primary field to win the Iowa caucuses in 2016, with longtime polling front-runner Trump finishing second behind the Texas senator. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) had a surprising third-place finish in the race, coming close behind Trump and Cruz.
The upset of Trump in the Hawkeye State did not stop his momentum, as he went on to defeat Cruz and the GOP field in the next three early state contests in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada.
Cruz would not be able to capitalize on the momentum from the Iowa victory, with Trump racking up wins across the country. The Texas senator would remain in the race until May, when Trump secured enough delegates to be declared the presumptive nominee. Cruz would finish with the second most delegates of any GOP candidate.
Trump would go on to defeat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election but would lose his reelection bid in 2020 to Joe Biden. Cruz would win reelection to his Senate seat in 2018 and is running for a third term in the upper chamber of Congress in November.
2012: Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum
Santorum narrowly defeated the Republican field in 2012 with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and then-Texas Rep. Ron Paul. The former Pennsylvania senator defeated the two other men in the popular vote but was projected to receive a similar number of delegates.
Despite winning the first contest in Iowa, Santorum would finish in a distant fourth place in New Hampshire a week later and would finish in a distant third place in the South Carolina primary later in the month.
Ultimately, he would remain in the race until April, when he would suspend his campaign, which cleared the way for Romney to win the GOP’s presidential nomination. He would run for president again in 2016 but would fail to gain any traction in that race.
Romney would go on to lose in the general election to then-President Barack Obama, but he would be elected to the Senate, representing Utah, in 2018. Romney would announce in 2023 that he would not seek reelection to his Senate seat in 2024.
2008: Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee
Huckabee defeated Romney, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, and then-Arizona Sen. John McCain, among other candidates, to win the first-in-the-nation caucuses. The former Arkansas governor won just over a third of the popular vote in the contest while being neck and neck with other Republican rivals in the RealClearPolitics polling average at the time.
McCain had a lackluster showing in Iowa but won a definitive victory in the next primary state, New Hampshire, and never looked back. The Arizona senator won most contests after the Granite State and pulled far ahead in national polls.
Huckabee would only win eight contests and drop out once McCain secured the nomination in March 2008. He ran for president again in 2012 and 2016. His daughter, Sarah, would serve as press secretary in the Trump White House from 2017 to 2019 and be elected governor of Arkansas in 2022.
McCain would lose to then-Illinois Sen. Barack Obama in the general election. The Arizona Republican was reelected to his Senate seat in 2010 and 2016 and died in 2018.
2000: Texas Gov. George W. Bush
Bush defeated Steve Forbes, McCain, and the rest of the GOP field in Iowa in January 2000 and largely did not look back. The then-governor of Texas won roughly 40% of the popular vote in the caucuses and won the most delegates.
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McCain would go on to win the New Hampshire primary, where he had focused his early campaign, but Bush would win most contests and easily won the Republican nomination.
Bush would go on to defeat then-Vice President Al Gore in the general election and win reelection to the presidency in 2004. He is the last Republican winner of the Iowa caucuses to also win the nomination and the presidency.