Data show public prefers Republican control
Washington Examiner
Video Embed
Voters are heading for an election next November in which they are offered a choice they do not want, between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. One of these unliked candidates is likely to receive just a few more percentage points of the vote than the other.
The unappealing choice means that although the outcome will be consequential, it probably would tell us little about which political party most voters want in charge.
For that answer, we get a better idea by looking at the latest numbers from the Census Bureau, which make clear that the public prefers Republican governance.
Since 2020, Republican-led Florida and Texas gained 1,073,000 and 1,357,800 people, respectively, while the Democratic-controlled California, Illinois, and New York lost 573,000, 264,000, and 631,000.
It was these far-left Democratic-led states that lost the most population, while states with more moderate governments retained population. For example, as Michael Barone notes, Northeast states other than New York gained 35,000 people, while Midwest states other than Illinois gained 185,000.
People aren’t escaping cold weather in Illinois and New York. They are fleeing bad governance in Chicago and New York City.
This was true throughout the country. States where Republicans control the governor’s mansion and both legislative chambers saw populations grow by 3.03% since 2020. Meanwhile, states where Democrats had complete control shrank by 0.89%. States with mixed control grew by 1.25%, above the national average. Almost all the population gain was due to migration between states.
The Census Bureau does not ask those fleeing Democratic-controlled states why they are leaving, but historically, those with lower incomes and education levels are most likely to decamp to destinations with better job prospects. That still appears to be happening in California, where a new minimum wage for fast food employees is killing jobs and making dining out more expensive.
The latest numbers suggest that the mix of those leaving is beginning to change. California used to attract more people with graduate or professional degrees than it lost. So, while California has been losing population for decades, it was gaining more highly educated residents on net. That isn’t true any longer. Since 2020, California has lost highly educated residents as well. The fact that about half of those who leave California buy a house in their new home state points to a big reason why they leave.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
More remote work since the pandemic has set people free to live away from their employers’ headquarters. Given the choice, the public chooses Republican states.
This is a strong reason Republicans in Congress should fight President Joe Biden’s centralizing agenda. On every topic, he is trying to force Republican states to adopt Democratic policies. If he wins reelection and homes become more expensive, where will the public flee to?