Twelve Days of WEX-Mas: Abortion down the ticket in 2024
Gabrielle M. Etzel
In the spirit of the season, the Washington Examiner has identified 12 issues we believe will shape 2024 — and beyond. These close-up examinations of agenda-setting issues cover everything from the ongoing battle between the Biden family’s business deals and Republican Oversight, the emergence of a “new world order,” and fights over redistricting and new election maps. Part Six is about abortion.
Having dominated debates on social matters in America for over 50 years, abortion will continue to be a hotly contested topic in the 2024 election campaigns for the presidency, Senate, and state government positions.
Republicans suffered several key losses in the 2023 state elections, including the governorship in Kentucky and in the Virginia state legislature. The poor performance of anti-abortion advocates in the 2023 season has led strategists in recent months to rethink campaign language and policy clarity on the controversial procedure.
TWELVE DAYS OF WEX-MAS: HOW SERIOUS IS BIDEN ABOUT FIXING THE BORDER IN 2024?
Here are three areas where abortion will affect 2024 election outcomes:
Republican presidential primary field
With the Iowa caucuses in 10 days, cultural topics such as abortion are poised to increase the tension in the 2024 presidential race early in the new year.
In November, both Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy shared with an Iowa audience their personal stories of how their respective wives miscarried their first children. Both Republican contenders emphasized that their faiths got them through these tragic experiences and shaped their views on abortion.
Ramaswamy and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie both have publicly argued that the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in 2022 made abortion entirely a state matter.
DeSantis and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley have been less definitive on states having their own practices on abortion rights, but both have said they would support federal abortion restrictions if a bill could make it through the complexities of Congress.
Former President Donald Trump has been less clear on abortion than his challengers. Although he takes credit for appointing the justices who overturned Roe, Trump has criticized Republicans such as DeSantis who have enacted strict abortion bans in the states, saying limits at six or 12 weeks gestation are too extreme.
Meanwhile, President Joe Biden has reinforced his commitment to protecting abortion rights at the federal level. The Democratic Party continues to use his administration’s actions to bolster access to abortion pills and contraception as key leverage against Republicans.
Senate races
Eleven Republican senators and four Democrats in Rust Belt swing states, including Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin, are up for reelection in 2024. With the retirement of Appalachian centrist Joe Manchin (D-WV), abortion could become central to flipping partisan control in the narrowly divided Senate.
Ten of the Republicans to face the ballot this year voted down the Democratic attempt to codify federal abortion protections in February 2022, shortly before the Supreme Court overturned Roe.
Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), and Josh Hawley (R-MO) have backed strict abortion bans in their respective states, making their races key ones to watch for any voter backlash.
In response to criticism of Cruz for his support of Texas’s total abortion ban, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Steve Daines (R-MT) has stressed that the party does “not support a federal ban on all abortions.” Daines also supports exceptions for rape, incest, and a mother’s life or health.
Abortion amendments
After Ohio voters enshrined abortion and reproductive rights in the state constitution this November, several other states are weighing abortion by referendum for 2024.
So far, abortion rights advocates have laid out plans to try to get abortion rights amendments on the ballot in seven states — Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, and South Dakota.
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Iowa’s Republican-controlled legislature may introduce an amendment on the ballot that declares there is no fundamental right to abortion in the state, which would clarify conflicting rulings from the state Supreme Court.
Both Maryland and New York will be weighing amendments to their respective constitutions that protect reproductive freedom rights and prohibit discrimination on the basis of pregnancy-related conditions. Both states protect abortion rights until fetal viability, which is often identified by physicians at between 22 and 24 weeks gestation.