It will take a Christmas miracle for Congress to pass aid to Ukraine before next year
Jamie McIntyre
A CHARM OFFENSIVE FALLS SHORT: Much like Ukraine’s disappointing summer/fall counteroffensive, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s mission to convince reluctant Republicans in Congress to expedite desperately needed supplies to his battle-weary troops “did not achieve the desired results.”
By linking the $60 billion in aid to the perennially contentious border debate over asylum policy and presidential parole authority while refusing to meet the Democrats halfway, Republicans have made it highly likely no U.S. aid will be flowing to Ukraine before next month at the earliest, when Congress returns from its Christmas break.
“President Zelensky made it so clear how he needs help, but if he gets the help, he can win this war,” Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said after Zelensky’s private meeting with senators. “He outlined in some great detail the kind of help he needs and how it will help him win … On the other hand, he made it clear, and we all made it clear, that if we lose, Putin wins. And this will be very, very dangerous for the United States.”
UKRAINE FORCED TO ‘SAVE AND TO RATION’ AMMUNITION AMID US AID IMPASSE
MISSION IMPOSSIBLE: With a border deal seemingly out of reach, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is planning to send his members home for the holidays on Friday, which Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) does not leave enough time for a resolution in the remaining three days
“I have said it is practically impossible, even though we reach an agreement, to craft it, get it through the Senate, and get to the House for Christmas,” McConnell said. “That doesn’t mean it’s not important, and even though we’ve been emphasizing the border, I want to remind everybody of the importance of Ukraine.”
“Republicans … have to be serious. Serious means negotiating in good faith. We’re willing to meet them in the middle,” Schumer said. “Serious means not saying we’re going to go home when there’s an emergency. They say it’s an emergency at both the border and in Ukraine. You don’t go home for three weeks; you don’t say we can put it off three weeks if it’s an emergency.”
MCCONNELL CALLS UKRAINE-BORDER DEAL ‘PRACTICALLY IMPOSSIBLE’ BEFORE 2024
FROM ‘AS LONG AS IT TAKES,’ TO ‘AS LONG AS WE CAN’: As Ukraine is forced to ration ammunition, the vows of the Biden administration to stand by Ukraine “as long as it takes” have begun to ring a little hollow.
“We’ll continue to supply Ukraine with critical weapons and equipment as long as we can, including $200 million I just approved today in critical, needed equipment, additional air defense interceptors, artillery, and ammunition,” President Joe Biden said at his White House news conference with Zelensky yesterday afternoon. “But without supplemental funding, we’re rapidly coming to an end of our ability to help Ukraine respond to the urgent operational demands that it has. [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is banking on the United States failing to deliver for Ukraine. We must, we must, we must prove him wrong.”
“Congress needs to pass the supplemental funding for Ukraine before they break for the holiday recess, before they give Putin the greatest Christmas gift they could possibly give him,” Biden said.
Asked by a reporter at the news conference about Sen. J.D. Vance’s (R-OH) assertion that it’s time for Ukraine to cede some territory to Russia to bring the fighting to an end, Zelensky visibly bristled at the suggestion, calling it “insane.” It’s not just land Ukraine would be giving up, Zelensky said; it would mean abandoning hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian citizens to Putin’s brutal, authoritarian rule.
“We have children there that’s part of Ukrainian society. And we are talking about human beings. They are being [tortured], they are being raped, and they are being killed,” Zelensky said. “That’s not a matter of territory. That’s a matter of lives, of families, of children, of their histories. I don’t know whose idea it is, but I have a question to these people, if they are ready to give up their children to terrorists? I think no.”
ZELENSKY URGES SENATE TO STAND WITH UKRAINE AMID BORDER DEAL STANDOFF
Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Conrad Hoyt. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre
CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE
NOTE TO READERS: Daily on Defense will take a holiday break beginning Friday, Dec. 22 and resuming Jan. 2, 2024. While we’re gone, you can still get the latest defense and national security news from the Washington Examiner here.
Subscribe today to the Washington Examiner magazine and get Washington Briefing: politics and policy stories that will keep you up to date with what’s going on in Washington. SUBSCRIBE NOW: Just $1.00 an issue!
HAPPENING TODAY: The House Oversight and Accountability Committee has scheduled a closed-door deposition of Hunter Biden for this morning, but it’s unclear if the president’s son will show up after demanding that his testimony be in public. Biden, who lives in California, is reportedly in Washington and, according to CNN, is still consulting with his legal advisers about whether he should submit to the committee’s subpoena.
HUNTER BIDEN AIMS TO PROVE DOJ ONLY CHARGED HIM DUE TO POLITICAL PRESSURE
Meanwhile, the House is planning to vote on whether to authorize an impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden, something House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said is “a necessary step” because the White House has been “stonewalling” the investigation.
Because of the narrow 221-213 Republican majority in the House, the vote is expected to be a test of party unity. Democrats, who insist there is no evidence Biden has done anything illegal or improper, are all expected to vote against the inquiry.
Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), who has opposed impeachment in the past, told reporters this week, “I can defend an inquiry right now … Let’s see what they find out.”
“The evidence has shown time and again President Biden has committed no wrongdoing, much less an impeachable offense,” Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) said in a statement two weeks ago. “Chairman Comer’s insistence that Hunter Biden’s interview should happen behind closed doors proves it once again. What the Republicans fear most is sunlight and the truth.”
AUSTIN HEADING BACK TO MIDDLE EAST: As the cruise missile attacks on commercial shipping by Houthi rebels continue — today, a commercial tanker loaded with jet fuel was targeted and missed near the key Bab el-Mandeb Strait — President Biden has dispatched Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to the Middle East.
“Secretary Austin will also travel to the region … to step up the international efforts to protect the free flow of commerce through the Red Sea,” Biden said amid calls for the U.S. to respond more forcefully to the Houthi attacks.
An American warship also shot down a suspected Houthi drone flying in its direction today, according to the Associated Press, which reported there were no injuries in the attack.
Austin is scheduled to travel to Bahrain, Qatar, and Israel next week, according to the Pentagon. “He also will have an opportunity to meet with some of our forces deployed to the region to thank them for their service and for all that they and their loved ones do for our nation,” spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters.
BIDEN’S MILD REBUKE OF NETANYAHU: Austin’s travel to the region comes as Biden has been freer with his criticism of Israeli tactics in its fight against Hamas, which has produced a staggering civilian death toll, even if you factor in that the numbers from the Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry are inflated.
Speaking at a Democratic fundraiser in Washington Monday, the day before the U.N. General Assembly voted overwhelmingly to demand a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza, Biden warned the carnage could turn world opinion against Israel.
“He’s a good friend, but I think he has to change and — with this government. This government in Israel is making it very difficult for him to move,” Biden said of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, noting that Netanyau’s national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, is part of “the most conservative government in Israel’s history.”
“And this is a different group. Ben-Gvir and company and the new folks, they don’t want anything remotely approaching a two-state solution. They not only want to have retribution, which they should for what Hamas did, but against all Palestinians,” Biden said. “They don’t want a two-state solution.”
“The position of my prime minister is that the Palestinians should have all the power to rule themselves and none of the power to hurt Israel,” Mark Regev, senior adviser to Netanyahu, said on CNN. “I think it’s important not to put this disagreement with the Americans into context. We agree on the need to defeat Hamas, that Israel is within its right and within its obligation to our people to destroy Hamas, that we have to see a new situation in the Gaza Strip.”
“Israel, as of two months ago, has a wider government now,” Regev said. “There’s really no left and right in Israel when it comes to defeating Hamas; everyone understands that we cannot have this terror enclave on our southern border, that we have to end that.”
BIDEN SAYS NETANYAHU MUST ‘CHANGE’ AMID GROWING US DISSENT WITH ISRAEL WAR
RUSSIA’S 315K CASUALTIES: In an attempt to regain ground and shift the narrative to create doubt about Ukraine’s ability to win the war, Russia in early October launched an offensive in the east to capture the town of Avdiivka. It has proved a costly operation, with the casualty count over the nine weeks put at 13,000 troops killed or wounded, according to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.
The bloody battle for Avdiivka is a microcosm of the massive losses suffered by Russia since the beginning of the war in February of last year. A declassified U.S. intelligence report that was provided to Congress and widely circulated yesterday assesses that Russia has lost 315,000 dead and injured troops, or 87% of the force it had when it invaded nearly two years ago.
The report also concluded that losses in personnel and armored vehicles have set back Russia’s military modernization by 18 years.
“The declassified intelligence assessment reportedly stated that Russian forces lost 315,000 personnel out of the 360,000 personnel, 2,200 out of 3,500 tanks, and 4,400 out of 13,600 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers that participated in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine,” the Institute for the Study of War said in its daily war update. “The assessment reportedly stated that Russian ground forces have lost over a quarter of their pre-invasion stockpiles of military equipment as of late November 2023, reducing the complexity and scale of Russian offensive operations.”
RUSSIAN ARMY CASUALTIES IN UKRAINE ESTIMATED AT 315,000 THROUGH WAR
GRIPPING TESTIMONY IN COAST GUARD SEX ASSAULT CASE: The testimony before the Senate Homeland Security And Governmental Affairs Investigations Subcommittee Tuesday was shocking, even to veteran senators who’ve heard it all.
“This testimony is some of the most powerful I’ve heard in my entire term in the United States Senate. And I’ve heard a lot of powerful testimony,” said Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT). “It is horrifying and heartbreaking.”
Four women who attended the U.S Coast Guard Academy from the late 1970s to today related how they endured sexual assault while leaders failed to protect them.
“I was groped several times, sometimes with 30 laughing witnesses, and sexually harassed on a daily basis. The environment was so consuming that I would take my school assignments down to the baseball dugouts in the dark with a flashlight,” Caitlin Maro, a former Coast Guard cadet, testified. “After I reluctantly reported my assaults, I was simply asked by my company commander, ‘Is this worth investigating?’”
“While a freshman at the academy, I experienced my first sexual assault. I was befriended by an upper-class male cadet, who invited me to go with him to New York City,” testified Melissa McCafferty, a former Coast Guard lieutenant. “He told me that he had booked separate hotel rooms, but when I arrived, I discovered only one. It was then that I realized this person was not my friend. Over the course of three days, he repeatedly raped me in that room. When I returned to the academy, I told no one. I feared that if I reported this incident, I would be the one to face discipline.”
“What I thought was an innocent ice cream date on campus turned into a sexual assault that has haunted me ever since,” related Kyra Holmstrup, a current Coast Guard cadet. “We are always told that you just have to say no, but no to him was an invitation to try again. I was 19. What I didn’t know then was that, after making an unrestricted report out of fear for my safety, I would be thrown into the darkest year of my life.”
“I go to talk to a chaplain,” Holmstrup said. “And when I went to talk to that chaplain, he asked me who assaulted me. And I told him, and he said, ‘oh, no, he’s such a good guy.’”
The hearing was the result of reporting by CNN that revealed a secret investigation by the Coast Guard — dubbed Operation Fouled Anchor — that substantiated dozens of sexual assaults at the academy.
“This culture has continued to refuse accountability, the type of accountability that comes from naming names and holding wrongdoers accountable,” Blumenthal said. “It’s a culture that has all too often victimized survivors twice. First, when they are assaulted or harassed, and then later when the leaders in command have failed to hold the perpetrators fully accountable.”
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Zelensky urges Senate to stand with Ukraine amid border deal standoff
Washington Examiner: McConnell calls Ukraine-border deal ‘practically impossible’ before 2024
Washington Examiner: Ukraine forced to ‘save and to ration’ ammunition amid US aid impasse
Washington Examiner: Russian army casualties in Ukraine estimated at 315,000 through war
Washington Examiner: Speaker Johnson unmoved by meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky
Washington Examiner: Speaker Johnson reverses course again on FISA and pulls both bills
Washington Examiner: More than 100 Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza since ground invasion began
Washington Examiner: Israeli leaders warn of escalation with Hezbollah
Washington Examiner: Biden says Netanyahu must ‘change’ amid growing US dissent with Israel war
Washington Examiner: Biden expresses doubts about Israel’s plan to flood Hamas tunnels
Washington Examiner: Biden receives mixed reactions for saying Jewish people would not be safe without Israel
Washington Examiner: Biden invites hostage families to White House after claims their Hanukkah requests were ignored
Washington Examiner: Kremlin claims not to ‘monitor the fate’ of missing Alexei Navalny
Washington Examiner: Houthis claim responsibility for attack on commercial tanker near Yemen
Washington Examiner: Bipartisan committee calls for tariffs as part of reset with China
Washington Examiner: Senate confirms Harry Coker Jr. as national cyber director
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Our national security requires forceful deterrence
Washington Examiner: Biden should assure China of excess utilities destruction in war
Washington Post: China’s Cyber Army Targets Key U.S. Services
Breaking Defense: Global Conflicts Spur A ‘Race’ To Develop, Field Electronic Warfare Systems: Navy Secretary
Bloomberg: Pentagon Has A Workaround To Send Ukraine Arms Despite Aid Stalemate
Bloomberg: Lockheed F-35’s Upgrade Overrun Risks Topping $1 Billion, Top Lawmaker Says
Defense One: US Rushed New F-35 Capabilities to Israel after Hamas Attack
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Former CENTCOM Commanders: US Should Consider Strikes Against Houthis
CNN: China-Philippines Maritime Standoff Escalating On Path That Could Drag US Into Conflict, Analysts Warn
Wall Street Journal: Israel Is Pumping Seawater Into Tunnels
New York Times: Israel Is Losing Support Over War, Biden Says, Exposing Leaders’ Rift
Task & Purpose: No, SECDEF Austin did not threaten to send US troops to fight in Ukraine
Air & Space Forces Magazine: USSF Creates New Component for SPACECOM
Breaking Defense: Freedom to Maneuver Key for Future Space ‘Combat Mindset,’ Says Ex-SPACECOM Deputy
Inside Defense: Major MDA Technical Review of Northrop-Raytheon NGI Design Set for January
Air & Space Forces Magazine: LaPlante: DOD ‘Not Walking Away’ From an F-35 Performance-Based Logistics Contract
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Stealth Upgrade: Alabama Guard Wing Gets First F-35s
Air & Space Forces Magazine: USAF Salvages a New Stealth Fighter from Two Wrecked Jets
C4ISRNET: L3Harris Says Viper Shield Electronic Warfare Tool for F-16s Nears Goal
Stars and Stripes: Kunsan Commander Orders 2-Day Flight Pause During Recovery Efforts for Crashed F-16
Space News: Can the Private Sector Plug the Weather Data Gap? Space Force to Launch New Study
The War Zone: Unusual AC-130J Gunship Caribbean Training Video Released
Texas Tribune: Mark Welsh III Officially Named President of Texas A&M University
The Atlantic: Opinion: Why the GOP Doesn’t Really Want a Deal on Ukraine and the Border
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | DECEMBER 13
7:15 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd, Arlington, Virginia — Association of the U.S. Army “Coffee Series” discussion with Gen. James Rainey, commanding general of U.S. Army Futures Command https://www.ausa.org/events/coffee-series/gen-rainey
9 a.m. Orlando, Florida — Day two of the Space Force Association inaugural Spacepower Conference, with Gen. Chance Saltzman, chief of space operations; Gen. James Dickinson, commander, U.S. Space Command; Lt. Gen. Stephen Whiting, commander, Space Operations Command, Peterson Space Force Base, Colorado; Lt. Gen. DeAnna Burt, deputy chief of space operations for operations, cyber, and nuclear, U.S. Space Force; Lt. Gen. Philip Garrant, deputy chief of space operations, strategy, plans, programs, and requirements, U.S. Space Force; Lt. Gen. Michael Guetlein, commander, Space Systems Command; Maj. Gen. Stephen Purdy, military deputy, Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Space Acquisition and Integration; and others https://attendspacepower.com
9 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: “Redefining U.S.-Japan-South Korea Relations in an Era of Economic Security,” with Mira Rapp-Hooper, National Security Council senior director for East Asia and Oceania https://www.brookings.edu/events/redefining-us-japan-south-korea-relations
9 a.m. — Counter Extremism Project webinar: “Houthi Procurement and Terror Finance — The Yemeni Arm of Iran’s Proxy Forces,” with Ari Heistein, author, CEP report series, Yemen specialist and defense technology professional; Raz Zimmt, research fellow, Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies; and moderator Hans-Jakob Schindler, CEP senior director https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
10:30 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave., NW — Hudson Institute in-person and virtual discussion: “Clarity on Hamas’s Terror Campaign and Sexual Violence,” with Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN); Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA): Rebeccah Heinrichs, senior fellow and director, Keystone Defense Initiative; and Morgan Ortagus, founder, Polaris National Security, and former State Department spokeswoman https://www.hudson.org/events/clarity-hamas-terror-campaign
12 p.m. — RAND Corporation virtual discussion: “China, Taiwan, and the U.S.: The Coming War?” with David Ochmanek, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for force development and RAND senior international/defense researcher, and Timothy Heath, RAND senior international/defense researcher https://www.rand.org/events/2023/12/china-taiwan
12 p.m. — Institute for Policy Studies virtual discussion: “The Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza and U.S. Obligations under International Law,” with Craig Mokhiber, former director of the New York Office of the U.N. Office for the High Commissioner of Human Rights, and Hani Almadhoun, director of philanthropy for the U.N. Palestinian Refugee Agency https://ips-dc.org/events/crisisingaza
12 p.m. — Jewish Democratic Council of America and the Democratic Jewish Outreach of Pennsylvania virtual briefing: “The ongoing crisis in Israel and the rise of antisemitism at home and around the world,” with Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA), and Yehuda Kurtzer, president of the Shalom Hartman Institute https://www.mobilize.us/jewishdems/event/593211
3 p.m. — Middle East Forum virtual discussion: “An update on the war between Israel and Palestinian Islamist group Hamas,” with Alex Selsky, MEF Israel Victory Project senior adviser, Homefront Command reserve major in the Israel Defense Forces, and former adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu http://tinyurl.com/4k4z92r3
THURSDAY | DECEMBER 14
8 a.m. 1700 Richmond Hwy., Arlington, Virginia — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Northern Virginia Chapter Air Force IT Day forum: “Data Superiority Across All Domains: A Must for the High End Fight,” with acting Undersecretary of the Air Force Kristyn Jones; Joe McDade, assistant deputy chief of staff for plans and programs at the Air Force; and Maj. Gen. David Snoddy, assistant deputy chief of staff for cyber effects operations at the Air Force https://afceanova.swoogo.com/AirForceITDay2023
8:30 a.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Hudson Institute discussion: “The B-21 Bomber and Its Deterrence Mission,” with Sen. Mike Rounds (R-SD) and Rebeccah Heinrichs, director of the Hudson Institute’s Keystone Defense Initiative https://www.hudson.org/events/senator-mike-rounds-b-21-bomber-its-deterrence-mission
9:30 — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “Looking Ahead: Emerging Security Issues in Northeast Asia in 2024,” with retired Army Gen. Robert Abrams, former commander of U.S. Forces Korea https://www.csis.org/events/looking-ahead-emerging-security-issues
10 a.m. — Middle East Institute virtual discussion: “The Middle East and Navigating the U.S.-China Tech Cold War,” with Rishi Iyengar, global technology reporter at Foreign Policy magazine; Alicia Chavy, MEI nonresident scholar; Suhayla Sibaai, MEI nonresident scholar; and Mohammed Soliman, director of the MEI Strategic Technologies and Cyber Security Program https://www.mei.edu/events/middle-east-and-navigating-us-china-tech-cold-war
11 a.m. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual forum: “The Hamas-Israel War: End of the Beginning or Beginning of the End?” with former Israel Defense Forces Brig. Gen. Assaf Orion, WINEP fellow; Hanin Ghaddar, WINEP senior fellow; and Matthew Levitt, WINEP fellow https://washingtoninstitute-org.zoom.us/webinar/register
12 p.m. — Middle East Institute virtual discussion: “The Israel-Hamas War: The Iran Factor,” with Nasser Hadian, professor of political science at the University of Tehran; Eckart Woertz, director of the GIGA Institute for Middle East Studies; Maha Yahya, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center; and Alex Vatanka, founding director of the MEI Iran Program https://www.mei.edu/events/israel-hamas-war-iran-factor
2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies International Security Program virtual discussion: “Russian Influence in the Balkans,” with Kosovo Defense Minister Ejup Maqedonci, moderated by Kathleen McInnis, senior fellow, International Security Program and director, Smart Women, Smart Power Initiative https://www.csis.org/events/russian-influence-balkans
2 p.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “Previewing the 2024 Taiwan election,” with Richard Bush, nonresident senior fellow of foreign policy at the Brookings China Center and the Brookings Center for East Asia Policy Studies; Shelley Rigger, vice president for academic affairs, dean of faculty, and professor of Asian politics at Davidson College; Kharis Templeman, research fellow and project manager of the Stanford University Hoover Institution’s Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region; and Ryan Hass, director of the Brookings China Center, senior fellow of foreign policy at the Brookings China Center and the Brookings Center for East Asia Policy Studies, and chairman in Taiwan studies at the Brookings Institution https://connect.brookings.edu/register-to-watch
FRIDAY | DECEMBER 15
10 a.m. — Asia Society Policy Institute virtual discussion: “Taiwan Elections in 2024: Who is Running and What to Expect,” with Rorry Daniels, managing director of the Asia Society Policy Institute; Simona Grano, senior fellow on Taiwan at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis; and Lyle Morris, senior fellow for foreign policy and national security at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis https://asiasociety.zoom.us/webinar/register
10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: “U.S.-China Relations,” with U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns https://www.brookings.edu/events/a-conversation-with-us-ambassador-to-china
QUOTE OF THE DAY “Congress needs to pass the supplemental funding for Ukraine before they break for the holiday recess, before they give Putin the greatest Christmas gift they could possibly give him. Because we’ve seen what happens when dictators don’t pay the price for the damage and the death and the destruction they cause — they keep going when no price is paid.” President Joe Biden