Newsom 2024: Despite denials, could California governor run at the last moment?
Barnini Chakraborty
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Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) has been one of the country’s most visible Democratic candidates-in-waiting.
Though he has denied running against President Joe Biden for the party’s 2024 nomination, his actions over the past several months seem to suggest that he has at least flirted with the idea.
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“Gavin Newsom is definitely trying to raise his profile nationally, whether for 2028 or if something came up sooner,” Democratic strategist David McLaughlin told the Washington Examiner.
The charismatic governor has worked hard to elevate his standing. He’s traveled to at least six Republican-led states, assembled a staff of political advisers, created a political action committee to dole out millions of dollars for Democratic causes, and managed to goad Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), a 2024 Republican presidential candidate, into a debate that will be aired later this week November 30 on Fox News.
Even though there have been mounting concerns that Biden’s poll numbers are too low and that his age (he turned 81 this month) may be a factor with voters, Newsom and other would-be challengers have largely fallen in line. Biden is still facing long-shot challenges from Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) and author Marianne Williamson.
“The train has left the station,” Newsom said. “We’re all in. Stop talking. He’s not going anywhere. It’s time for all of us to get on the train and buck up.”
Despite his denials, several political insiders said it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility that Democrats turn to Newsom in 2024.
“The Democratic Party’s nervousness about Biden has certainly increased, and with him polling behind Donald Trump in many states, his low approval ratings, young voters being especially disenchanted with Biden, all of that has heightened interest among a lot of party supporters in an alternative,” Eric Schickler, professor of political science at University of California, Berkeley and co-director of its institute of governmental studies, said.
Typically, the party would look closer to home, but with Vice President Kamala Harris’s popularity even lower than Biden’s, Newsom’s 2028 time frame could be moved up.
“It’s not a situation where there’s like 20 or 50 or 100 Democratic leaders who could be viewed as legitimate,” Schickler added. “If there were such a group, Newsom has positioned himself pretty well and would be on a very short list along with [Gov.] Gretchen Whitmer [D-MI] and a couple others.”
If that were the case, would Newsom even qualify to be on the ballot? What about voters? Would they jump on the Newsom train or look elsewhere? Could he beat GOP front-runner former President Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup? The Washington Examiner breaks down these questions and more.
Will Joe Biden step down?
Not likely.
Biden announced he was running for reelection in April, telling voters he needed more time to get the job done. Despite questions about his age and mental acuity, there’s no evidence that his plans have changed. His legislative victories, which include capping insulin costs, boosting infrastructure, and climate change, have been popular among Democrats. Despite some calls to be a one-term president, most political experts, for better or for worse, believe he’s in it for the long haul.
“I think the likelihood [he drops out] is very slim,” McLaughlin said. “I think Democrats’ performance in recent elections is far more predictive of 2024 than recent polls that have been released.”
Does Newsom want to be president?
Looks like it.
Newsom was elected governor of California in 2018, reelected in 2022, and is set to leave office in 2027. He has managed to insert himself into the national conversation over culture wars, troll DeSantis into a debate, and make himself known to global leaders. He’s been asked, often, if he wants the job, and his answers have changed over time.
In September 2022, when asked if he was planning on running in 2024 at the Texas Tribune Festival, he gave an emphatic “no.” Actually, he said it seven times.
“No, no, not happening, no, no, no, not at all,” he said.
But Newsom’s national footprint has become so large that even a “no” may sound like a “maybe” to some.
“Newsom seems to be pulling out all the stops to run a shadow campaign across the country and the globe,” Democratic strategist Kaivan Shroff said, pointing to the governor’s recent trips to China and Israel. He also cited Newsom’s comments on addressing gun violence, claiming the call for a 28th amendment to the Constitution “only serves as a vehicle to promote himself.”
California Republican Chairwoman Jessica Millan Patterson also believes Newsom is champing at the bit.
“It’s no surprise that Gavin Newsom is waiting in the wings in hopes to be next in line as the Democratic presidential nominee,” Patterson said.
What’s up with the budding bromance between Biden and Newsom?
During the welcome reception at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco earlier this month, Biden thanked Newsom in front of an international audience packed with global leaders.
“He’s been one hell of a governor, man,” Biden said. “Matter of fact, he could be anything he wants. He could have the job I’m looking for.”
The comments got some laughs from the crowd and gave Newsom a boost, but the two men haven’t always been on the best terms.
In fact, Newsom was seen as somewhat of a nuisance.
He annoyed Democratic leaders by not tamping down speculation earlier about a possible 2024 run. He also ruffled some feathers in May when he faulted his own political party for being too passive in response to culture wars, including positions on abortion rights. Since then, he has done a 180, becoming a vocal supporter of Biden and strongly pushing Democratic priorities.
Could Newsom beat Trump?
A new 2024 projection by Stack Data Strategy says no.
The company, which published a new polling model in mid-November, found that Biden, Newsom, and other Democrats floated for a possible 2024 run would all lose to Trump.
According to the data, Trump would lead Biden in the Electoral College, even though Biden would beat Trump in the popular vote. They predicted that Trump would flip back the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
When it came to Newsom, Stack found the governor would not only lose those four states but would also lose Maine, Michigan, Nevada, and New Hampshire, all states that Biden won in 2020.
Could Newsom even get on the ballot, or has he missed deadlines?
While there are no national deadlines to file to run for president, candidates have to meet different state-specific filing requirements to appear on that state’s ballot.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
Newsom has already missed the filing deadlines in Alabama (Nov. 10, 2023), Arkansas (Nov. 14, 2023), Nevada (Oct. 16, 2023), and New Hampshire (Oct. 27, 2023).
There are a handful of other states deadlines coming up in December including Maine, Washington, D.C. (Dec. 1, 2023); Oklahoma (Dec. 6, 2023); Michigan (Dec. 8, 2023); Arizona, Colorado, and Texas (Dec. 11, 2023); Virginia (Dec. 14, 2023); California, Louisiana, North Carolina, and Vermont (Dec. 15, 2023); Ohio (Dec. 20, 2023); and Massachusetts (Dec. 22, 2023).