How Poland can boost its influence in Europe
Janusz Bugajski
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Polish President Andrzej Duda has started the process of forming a new government that can significantly enhance Warsaw’s role in European Union policymaking. Although Duda first asked the ruling party, Law and Justice, or PiS, to establish a governing coalition, its chances are slim, and the baton will then pass to the opposition.
The October 2023 parliamentary elections resulted in a major swing toward the opposition parties. Although PiS finished first in the ballot, it failed to gain a sufficient number of seats and coalition partners to continue in government. The main opposition, the Civic Coalition, or KO, finished second but can form a government with 248 of 460 parliamentary seats in combination with two smaller parties.
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With clear support in Washington and Brussels, the new government has the opportunity to boost Poland’s development as a strategic player in Europe and America’s security anchor in continental Europe. However, it is important that misconceptions about the outgoing PiS government are corrected. Otherwise, outsiders will view Poland as unpredictable, unreliable, and susceptible to populism.
PiS alienated many EU partners because of its violations of media freedoms and judicial independence, but it did not plan to exit the EU or to isolate the country from the rest of Europe. Its security posture, military buildup, and assistance to Ukraine bolstered NATO’s eastern flank. It developed important regional projects, including the Three Seas Initiative for infrastructure connectivity that will strengthen and enrich the EU. And it deepened military and economic relations with the United States. Ignoring these achievements and labeling PiS as “populist” is simplistic partisanship. All these initiatives must be pursued by the new government.
The incoming coalition has an opportunity to build on Warsaw’s security and foreign policy successes by expanding Poland’s influence in the EU. The return of Donald Tusk as prime minister will raise Poland’s stature within the union. Tusk served as president of the European Council and of the European People’s Party and is well respected in most EU capitals. This does not mean that Warsaw will become fully supportive of Berlin and Paris, comply with the EU’s largely hollow security policy, or back plans for European federalization. Tusk will have the opportunity to carve out Poland’s own vision of Europe as an emerging leader alongside Germany and France. The coalition will also need to take account of the widespread EU skepticism that PiS used to its advantage. Otherwise, it could face a new wave of public opposition.
Tusk can help restore the Polish-German relationship, which deteriorated under the previous government. Both Warsaw and Berlin are to blame for the current freeze. Warsaw should not depict Germany as a quasi-imperialist power seeking to subjugate Poland. In reality, Germany’s core problem is that it hollowed out its military and exposed its inability to defend Central Europe from a Russian attack. Berlin also based its economic growth on cheap energy from a subversive Russia, and it became deeply corrupted with Russian money and displayed little solidarity with its EU neighbors. Simply blaming Warsaw for the disputes is disingenuous and plays into Moscow’s hands.
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Warsaw can also clearly distance itself from the Hungarian government, not simply on ideological grounds but on core foreign policy principles. In effect, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has become a Russian asset in the middle of Europe. If Slovakia, under Robert Fico’s premiership, follows the same path, then Poland will need to rally the pro-Atlanticist states and marginalize the pro-Moscow bloc inside the EU. Budapest and Bratislava will have the opportunity to reverse course in future elections when they see Poland’s progress.
Instead of complaining that Poland’s national sovereignty is threatened by the EU, Warsaw should act as a victor and not a victim. It will have the opportunity to demonstrate that its national interests will enhance European security and prosperity by defending against Russian imperialism and by building a stronger regional alliance between the Baltic, Adriatic, and Black seas.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington. His recent book is Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture. His forthcoming book is titled Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Strategic Player.