Trump’s strong general election polling is a mirage
Zachary Faria
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Former President Donald Trump’s general election polling strength is a mirage, and Republicans will be making a grave mistake if they fall for the illusion and nominate him for 2024.
The New York Times/Siena College poll between Trump and President Joe Biden is making waves, as it shows Trump leading in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Biden is unpopular, people think the country is on the wrong track, and a majority rate the current economic conditions as “poor.” None of this is a surprise.
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But to assume that this proves there are no electability concerns for Trump is a mistake. These polls are essentially just a reflection of Biden’s disapproval rating (59%) and unfavorability rating (57%). Biden is the focus because he is the president. The people currently being polled are expressing their dissatisfaction with Biden, not that they actually want Trump back.
We know this because Trump still polls very poorly individually as well. His unfavorability rating (56%) is nearly identical to Biden’s. Among undecided and persuadable voters, 46% think Trump winning would be bad for the country, while just 20% think it would be good. A majority, 54%, say that Trump has committed serious federal crimes. Just as Biden is polling below a “generic Republican,” Trump is polling below a “generic Democrat.”
In other words, voters hate both candidates. Biden is the focus now, but if Trump were to clinch the nomination, then the entire Democratic Party, liberal media, higher education, and celebrity alliance would bear down on him again. Democrats will hide Biden in a basement, and Trump will chase the cameras and remind everyone why they cast him out in 2020. It will be, as Yogi Berra said, “deja vu all over again.”
It isn’t just 2020 that would be getting a replay, either. We can see the exact phenomenon of the incumbent president polling poorly as the focus back in fall 2011, when Democrats were raising alarm bell after alarm bell that then-incumbent President Barack Obama was on track to lose. Obama, of course, went on to win in 2012.
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Look at the context of 2011 and 2023, and you see just how vulnerable Trump is. Obama sat at 44% approval, which means he was more popular than Biden is now, but Trump’s unique unpopularity dwarfs that of the 2012 GOP field as well. In 2011, Democrats were coming off historic midterm losses. Meanwhile, it was Republicans in 2022 who struggled, despite Biden’s unpopularity, because the midterm elections were tied to Trump instead.
All signs continue to point to Trump being weak in the general election once you look past the fall 2023 poll that is being put in front of your face. That poll is a mirage, and it will leave Republicans stranded in the desert for another four years as Democrats laugh at just how gullible the GOP could be to think that the mirage is real.