Anti-Trump GOP hopes are currently based on fantasy math
Timothy P. Carney
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With former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley on the rise and former President Donald Trump polling below 50% in Iowa, there are some anti-Trump Republicans and conservatives issuing a familiar cry: Non-Trump Republicans should consolidate behind a single candidate who can wrest the party back from Trump.
This call has been going out for a year.
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The thinking is that Trump can only win against a divided GOP field. This thinking isn’t based on actual polls or math but on hope and fear. Byron York pointed that out on Monday, and if you check out the latest Des Moines Register poll, the numbers tell a grim picture for the “anyone but Trump” crowd.
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) is the first choice for 16% of Iowans in this poll. When they were asked for their second choice, 41% of DeSantis supporters named Trump. Do the math: 41% of 16% is about 6% or 7% — that’s the portion of the electorate Trump would get if DeSantis dropped out, according to this poll.
Add that 6% or 7% to Trump’s current 43%, and he’s within the margin of error of 50%. Basically, if DeSantis dropped out, Trump would have an absolute majority of Iowans in this poll.
Meanwhile, 27% of DeSantis’s supporters would tack to Haley as their second choice. This might be the “whoever can beat Trump” part of the GOP electorate. Multiplying 27% of 16%, and you get about 4 points more for Haley. If DeSantis dropped out, that would move Haley from 16% to 20%.
So that’s where we start if DeSantis drops out: Trump leading Haley 49% to 20%. It is an absolute fantasy to assume that Haley would gain the entirety of the remaining 30% in a head-to-head race. The only reason this fantasy is entertained is that the “anybody but Trump” contingent of conservatism is very overrepresented in the commentariat.
If Haley dropped out, Trump would get 12% of her supporters, if the Des Moines Register poll is correct, which ticks him up 2 points to 45%.
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Part of the problem is that conservatives and establishment Republicans believe Trump only won the nomination in 2016 because the primary electorate was so divided. That may be true, but there’s plenty of reason to believe that Trump would have beaten any of his top opponents — Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, and former Ohio Gov. John Kasich — in a head-to-head contest in most primary states.
Anything can change in the coming months, but as of now, it’s straightforward: Donald Trump is the overwhelming favorite to be the Republican presidential nominee in 2024.