Iowa poll shows Haley has no path to nomination
Conn Carroll
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Nikki Haley may have moved into a tie with Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) in the latest Des Moines Register poll, but a quick look at who Republicans say is their second choice shows she is not the one who can beat former President Donald Trump.
The top-line numbers show Trump at 43%, DeSantis and Haley at 16%, and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) at 9%.
But when asked who their second choice was, just 27% of DeSantis voters said Haley compared to 41% who said Trump.
Meanwhile, for Haley supporters, 34% say DeSantis is their second choice, while just 12% say Trump.
In other words, if DeSantis were to drop out, it would help Trump because DeSantis voters prefer Trump to Haley. But if Haley were to drop out, it would help DeSantis since most of her voters will never vote for Trump.
Additionally, when asked which candidates they were considering voting for, Trump and DeSantis were tied at 67%. Meanwhile, just 54% of Iowa Republicans said they were considering voting for Haley.
DeSantis also boasts the highest favorability rating of all the candidates. Overall, 69% of Iowa Republicans have a favorable view of DeSantis, up from 66% in the August poll. Trump is viewed favorably by a similar 66% of Republicans, while just 59% say the same about Haley.
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Trump still has a commanding lead, but he is not above 50% either. That shows he is vulnerable. That is why his campaign is still spending so much money running attack ads against DeSantis.
At some point, the other candidates are going to have to decide if staying in the race is really worth giving Trump the best chance to be the nominee again.