Dictators exploit America’s distraction
Michael Rubin
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As elections loom, Washington looks inward. The world may not revolve around America’s political calendar, but dictators and rogues are sophisticated and factor it in as they seek advantage. When Nikita Khrushchev first met President John F. Kennedy, the Soviet premier joked, “You know, Mr. Kennedy, we voted for you.” When Kennedy asked how, Khrushchev related, “By waiting until after the election to return the pilot,” a reference to Francis Gary Powers, whose U-2 aircraft was shot down over the Soviet Union. Iranian Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini was no different. He waited until President Jimmy Carter left office to release American hostages.
While dictators have always been cognizant of U.S. elections, the situation has grown more dangerous as they today factor them into timing aggression. In August 2008, Russian forces poured into Georgia to punish President Mikheil Saakashvili’s Westward pivot, catching American policymakers by surprise. While the media covered the unfolding crisis, they too often couched it in the context of the presidential campaign between Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain. The Bush administration’s end meant it did not have the time frame to craft any credible policy, nor did either potential successor have the attention span, let alone the team in place, to coordinate.
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Fast forward 12 years: Azerbaijan launched its surprise attack on Nagorno-Karabakh at the tail end of President Donald Trump’s reelection campaign against President Joe Biden. Trump lacked focus on the best of days, but Azerbaijani dictator Ilham Aliyev understood an attack as the American campaign reached its apex would mean not only little attention to the warning signs but also that there would be no effective response after the fighting began.
Nor was Aliyev alone. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed chose Nov. 3, 2020, American Election Day, to launch his genocidal campaign against the country’s Tigray people. While neither Democrats nor Republicans often focus on Africa, his timing guaranteed that he could begin his genocide with a minimum of attention, not only in the United States but also across much of Europe.
That Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev once again chose September to complete Azerbaijan’s occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh and ethnically cleanse the indigenous Armenian community was no coincidence. He knew the Biden-and-Trump show distracted Washington. At best, cable news shows might allot 30 seconds to the eradication of one of the oldest indigenous Christian communities on earth, hardly enough to generate sufficient outrage to leverage into American action.
Hamas, too, chose the fall. While the terrorist group timed its assault to the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, its leaders believed that Washington might be distracted. Had they not achieved a scale of slaughter beyond their wildest hope, they might have been correct.
And, as Washington is distracted, Turkey continues its mass bombing campaign across Syrian Kurdistan, where Turkish warplanes and drones target not only Kurdish leaders but also civilian infrastructure in a precursor to what appears to be a widespread incursion. Do not expect to hear about that in the news, however, as either Israel or American politics dominates coverage.
The point is not simply the past is prescriptive. Not every invasion centers on Washington. Russian forces, for example, poured into Ukraine in February 2022. The pattern, however, is real, and provincial politics have a high cost.
Today, not only are Azerbaijan, Turkey, Serbia, and Iran on a rampage, either directly or by proxy, but other countries also stand on the sideline waiting to make good on their irredentist ambitions. Within the foreign and defense policy community, debate centers on whether support for Ukraine and Israel distracts from the prerogative to defend Taiwan. It is an important question.
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When China does eventually attack Taiwan, be certain: It will more likely occur shortly before or after an election when the White House is least prepared to respond.
Americans can play politics today, but the cost of navel-gazing is high. Rogues and revisionists have agency. They have strategy. And they will strike when America is least prepared.
Michael Rubin (@mrubin1971) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. He is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.