Three points on Israel-Hamas war: scaled threat, intelligence failure, political ramifications
Tom Rogan
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The ramifications of Hamas‘s surprise attack on Israel are profound. This invasion has shredded both Israel’s security and its assessments of the Palestinian terrorist group/political party. As I see it, there are three immediate points of consideration.
First off, there’s the scaled threat that Hamas has newly imposed on Israel.
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Killing at least 200 Israeli civilians and soldiers (the final death toll is likely to be far closer to 300+) and capturing dozens more, Hamas has taken its long-standing fight with the Jewish state to an unprecedented level. The images of terrified civilians being lined up and marched off to uncertain fates, and of bloodied female Israeli soldiers, some half-naked, will not easily be forgotten. These images will evoke memories of the Holocaust: of innocents marched off for oppression and annihilation simply because of their identity.
Israel has dealt with terrorism since its birth, but this attack is comparable only to the surprise attack on Israel in the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
Indicating a massive and sustained military response is likely, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to establish an emergency unity government with his erstwhile nemeses, Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz. Deeply fierce and personal domestic disagreements are being put aside. But this unity government offers Israel added legitimacy as it conducts aggressive operations to degrade Hamas’s military infrastructure and reestablish deterrence with its political leadership.
The scale of Hamas’s attack means that concerns over the safety of hostages will likely take second place to the Israeli government’s belief that it must strike a decisive blow.
Expect ground operations in Gaza, relentless strikes against Hamas leaders and positions of all kinds, and air strikes of far greater intensity than we have seen in recent years (perhaps more intense than ever before). The central foundation of Israeli security strategy is the fostering of its enemies’ perception that they cannot threaten the state’s survival or way of life. Hamas has directly challenged that foundation and Netanyahu’s government will believe it critical to restore the deterrent balance.
Iran also looms large here.
Israel’s apex threat consideration, after all, is the prevention of an Iranian nuclear weapon. Iran’s long-standing financial and military support for Hamas notwithstanding, Israel cannot allow Iran to perceive its response to this attack as a signal of hesitation or weakness. If Tehran is found to be directly linked to these attacks, Israel may well conduct direct strikes inside Iran. Because of Tehran’s hawkish terrorist stance toward the United States, Washington may also be drawn in here.
Another threat looms to the north. The Lebanese Hezbollah has thus far responded cautiously to the attacks, with its Al Manar media service offering only celebration for the “flood” attack. Still, whatever it now does in Gaza and the West Bank, Israel will also have to hold capable forces in place for the defense of its northern border. The greater scale, quality, and diversity of Hezbollah’s missile and special forces as compared to those of Hamas is not something the IDF can ignore. If Hezbollah joins the fight, Israel will have to fight a two-front war.
Next up, there’s the intelligence failure.
This is for Israeli intelligence services what 9/11 was to the U.S. intelligence community. Israel’s intelligence apparatus prizes itself on the ability to accurately assess both what its enemies are thinking and doing at any one moment. These attacks evince a catastrophic intelligence failure on both those counts.
Investigations will follow into how Israel’s Shin Bet security intelligence service, its Gaza border police intelligence units, and its Aman military intelligence service didn’t see this coming. The most likely answer is that a very small group of Hamas leaders kept their plans hidden from all others until the last moment. It is likely that many of the gunmen who entered Israel on Saturday were not told of the attack plans until the very last moment. Where preparations had to be discussed, they were probably disguised as training exercises. Israeli intelligence penetration of Hamas in terms of human agents, technical, and signals intelligence is deep. But no intelligence service can yet beam itself inside an enemy’s mind. The sense of shock that no one saw this coming will only encourage the Israeli government to adopt a harsh response.
Finally, there are the political ramifications.
Netanyahu’s formation of a unity government will provide a measure of political and diplomatic cover from hardliners in his coalition government. Gantz’s position as former head of the Israeli uniformed military also makes him far better placed to support an effective war strategy than Netanyahu’s racist security and economic ministers. But the Israeli prime minister will rise or fall on how he handles the aftermath of this onslaught. Also, Israel’s long-term strategy will likely shift toward a more hostile stance in relation to diplomacy with the Palestinians.
The consequences for Israel’s foreign relations will also be significant.
The Biden administration is rightly receiving renewed criticism for its recent unfreezing of $6 billion in Iranian funds (while it’s probable those funds have no direct link to these attacks, Biden administration excuses that this money will not eventually support terrorism are utterly disingenuous). U.S. support for Israel at the United Nations and in other international fora will be critical in the coming days. At the same time, these attacks seem set to bury any prospect of a near-term Israeli-Saudi peace accord. It will not have gone unnoticed by the Israelis that the Saudi government has decided to align itself with Qataris in effectively blaming Israel for these attacks.
Top line: this is a profound moment not just for Israel, its leaders, and its people but also for Israel’s history and its relationship with the world.